Players I Was Wrong About

Photo by Katie Stratman of USA TODAY Sports

Every year fantasy players need to go into a season and make decisions on each player. Everyone goes into a draft with a list of players they desperately want, and players they’ll avoid no matter what. Making these decisions at the draft can’t win anyone a championship, but is a great way to set yourself up for success.

Fantasy analysts, experts, and players all spend hours combing over data trying to imagine the most likely outcome for each player. We even get ourselves caught up in a feedback loop, with expectations pushing up ADP, which pushes up expectations, which pushes up ADP etc etc forever. A good example of that from this offseason is Chase Edmonds, who’s ADP spiked in the weeks before drafts even though no new relevant information came out about him. In hindsight, it shouldn’t be a shock when he disappointed everyone who drafted him.

Fortunately (or unfortunately) football is not played by a computer program mapping out the most statistically likely event, but is played by human beings. Athletes can rise to the occasion, or crumble under pressure. Coaches can ruin a player’s value for seemingly no reason, and an injury to a single player can throw a wrench in a whole team’s plan. 

All this is to say, everyone gets some preseason predictions wrong. A smart fantasy player will learn from their mistakes and will (hopefully) be able to distinguish true trends versus outlier weeks. After you’ve played a few seasons and taken stock of any mistakes, it becomes easier to identify news that’s just part of a hype train versus news that is actually going to be a difference maker. 

Without further ado, here are the players we were wrong about this year.

Darnell Mooney

The bull case for Mooney was easy. He broke out in 2021 as a sophomore, with over 1000 receiving yards and 4 TDs. In the offseason, Allen Robinson packed his bags and moved to the sunny coast, leaving Mooney as the undisputed No.1 receiver on the Bears. Justin Fields was also going into his sophomore year, and expectations were high for him to progress as a passer. The Bears also fired Matt Nagy who was frustratingly ineffective as an offensive play caller and seemed to run the ball far too much. The Bears were also expected to be a bad team, who would need to throw the ball a lot to catch up in games they were trailing in. I viewed Mooney as a lock for 1000 yards, with a reasonable expectation for 1300 yards and 5+ touchdowns. 

The dream of Mooney becoming a true WR1 quickly died though. He started off with only 4 catches in the first 3 weeks combined, and didn’t catch his first touchdown until Week 9. Even after Fields broke out, and the Bears offense took a major step forward, Mooney’s production never climbed to a level where you were happy to start him. Mooney’ season was eventually cut short in Week 12 after an ankle injury. This left him finishing with less than 500 yards and only 2 TDs in his 11 games played. It was a wildly disappointing year for him and anyone that drafted him.

What can we learn:

The lesson learned from the 2022 version of Mooney is a tough one. I’ve always tried to bet on talent instead of perceived opportunity, as talent typically wins out, but that’s not always the case. I still believe that talent wins out in competition between teammates, but it won’t necessarily win out against a coaches scheme. No matter how good Mooney is, if the Bears are only throwing the ball 15 – 20 times a game, there can be no stars in the receiving room. 

There were plenty of other players who fell into a similar category as Mooney this year. London and Pitts were high on everyone’s draft board, but couldn’t succeed due to the lack of passing volume from the Falcons, even in negative game scripts. Garrett Wilson is supremely talented (as proven when Mike White and Joe Flacco are under center), but he sat on fantasy benches during the weeks that Zach Wilson started due to the lack of passing volume. Going into this year, I had often believed in the line, “someone has to catch the ball”, but this year proved that is not always the case. – Derek

Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson came to Denver with sky high expectations both in real life and in fantasy. He brought his Pro Bowl and Super Bowl winning resume to a team with the best supporting cast he’s had in years. The expectation was for Russ to be his average self, and be a lock for 4000+ passing yards, 300+ rushing yards and 35+ TDs. If Russ had a good connection with his new team though and the offense really took a step forward, a top 3 QB season was very much possible for the leader of an offense that no defense would be able to stop.

I’ll admit it, I was fooled by Russell Wilson. I don’t feel too bad though, because everyone was fooled by Russel Wilson. The Broncos themselves got fooled enough to pay Russ $242 Million over 5 years. The implosion that we’ve witnessed is frankly quite amazing. Wilson played 16 games, and eclipsed 250 passing yards just five times, and averaged just over 1 TD per game. While his numbers look bad, the product we saw on the field looks even worse. Russ was predictable, inaccurate and scared. The offense as a whole was a mess, with Russ and his receivers not timing routes well, terrible red zone plays and execution. 

What can we learn:

There isn’t actually a ton that can be learned from Wilson’s disappointing year that can be carried forward to other years. It’s not often the Pro-Bowl QBs get traded in their prime, but I guess we can be weary when that happens. The more important lesson is to understand the risks when players enter new systems and new schemes. We see it often when a QB or WR goes to a new team, it takes a while for the player to get up to speed with the new scheme and their new teammates. While I expected Russ to bring a lot of his system from Seattle over to Denver with him, the risk of it all failing is not something I placed enough weight on. -Derek

Josh Jacobs

I’ve been a Josh Jacobs truther for a long time. I’ve always liked watching him play, and had considered him one of the most well rounded running backs in the league. Jacobs had proven to be an above average runner through the tackles, can make people miss in the open field, and was more than competent catching passes. Going into the season though, I had decided I was out on Jacobs at his average price. This offseason, the Raiders seemed to use every opportunity to show they don’t believe in Jacobs. They declined his 5th year option, drafted a talented running back (Zamir White) in the 4th round and talked up passing catching options like Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah all training camp. On top of all of this, the Raiders hired Josh McDaniels as head coach, who has a long history in New England of using a running back by committee approach. This led me, and many others, to believe that Jacobs would only be an early down running back who eventually got phased out of the offense to make way for White to take over. 

Jacobs and the Raiders proved everyone wrong in a big way. Jacobs was a typical bell cow, averaging 19+ carries per game. White, Bolden and Abdullah never made a sizeable dent in his work, so it was all Jacobs all the way. This led him to finish as the RB4 in points per game. He even had three separate weeks as the RB1 and five weeks in the top 5. He didn’t solely rely on touchdowns for these lofty numbers either, finishing with the most rushing yards and even cracked 400 receiving yards. Jacobs was a classic league-winning type of player. It would have been tough for anyone who drafted him to miss the playoffs. 

What can we learn:

The lesson for Jacobs is not a clear one, and to me, doesn’t really have anything to do with him as a player. It’s more a lesson about coaching. The Raiders organization can make whatever moves they want to, but when a new coach comes in and sees a first round talent succeeding, it will be hard for him to keep him off the field. Josh McDaniel’s had a lot to prove this year, and when he saw Jacobs succeeding time and time he had to give him the ball more often. While I will remain hesitant when a team continues to show signs they don’t believe in a player, the lesson is to give new coaches the benefit of the doubt, and to continue to invest in talented players. -Derek

Tyler Lockett

Lockett has been a fantastic player for seemingly forever. His connection with Russell Wilson was undeniable, leading him to fantasy finishes of a WR2 or better in each of the past 5 seasons, with three of those seasons being inside the top 12. Lockett’s long been the teams top receiver with a hall of fame quarterback, so this year had obvious potential for a bad year for Lockett. Wilson had been replaced with Geno Smith, who we all expected to be a major downgrade, and DK Metcalf had emerged as the clear number one on the team. I had expected the Seahawks to be a bad, run-first offense that had very few opportunities for touchdowns. My expectations for Lockett reflected that, with inconsistent yardage totals week to week, and unpredictable touchdowns. I figured he would be an inconsistent WR4, that you didn’t ever want to start, but could if you got stuck in a tough bye week situation.

Lockett proved me wrong in a big way. A big reason for that was the huge surprise that is Geno Smith. Geno exploded onto the scene and finished with 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns; much higher totals than anyone had dared to predict. Lockett was a huge benefactor of this, finishing with 1,033 yards on 84 catches, and an unbelievable 9 touchdowns. This was good enough for Lockett to finish as the WR17 on the year in points per game. Unlike other years, Lockett was reasonably consistent as well, and didn’t have his classic spike weeks that had defined his career up until this point.

What can we learn:

I don’t want to over commit to the things we can learn from Lockett’s season. While he is incredibly talented, investing in Lockett this offseason meant investing in what we thought was a low passing volume offense. We’ve already talked about how bad of an idea that can be. The main difference with Lockett is, the only hurdle that had to be overcome for him was Geno Smith growing into a competent passer. We all went into the season assuming that Geno would only be throwing the ball 20-25 times per game, but if we knew that he’d be throwing well over 30 times per game, Lockett would’ve moved way up draft boards.

The main lesson to be learned is: if a player has proven time and time again that they can succeed and consistently put up big numbers, do not fully discount them if their situation changes. As fantasy managers we often want to discount older players in favour of young guns with sky high ceilings. Lockett was getting drafted behind guys like Isaiah McKenzie, and Elijah Moore who clearly had a more difficult journey to every week starts than Lockett did. -Derek

Elijah Moore 

If there was an official Elijah Moore fan club, I would have ran for president last summer. Suffice to say, he fell well short of expectations this year after a promising rookie campaign. After a slow start to his rookie year in 2021, he was the WR6 from weeks 6-13 before ultimately suffering a season-ending injury. Between a strong rookie campaign, an excellent athletic profile, and a history of production in college, the signs were there for a year 2 eruption. Unfortunately, that never materialized.Fact of the matter is this Jets offense looked out of sync for much of the season, especially when Zach Wilson was under center. While Garrett Wilson established himself as a borderline WR1 in games that Mike White or Joe Flacco started, he was frustratingly borderline unusable whenever Wilson started. This Jets offense struggled to support even 1 viable receiver some weeks, so you’re living dangerously if you’re expecting the 2nd or 3rd guy to pop. In addition, he was largely miscast as the perimeter, high-aDot guy for much of the season, despite the fact that his skillset is better suited towards more of a versatile , slot-heavy role. Whatever the case may be, Moore will certainly go down as one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments of 2022. He only hit double digit half-PPR points once all year, and was widely dropped in redraft formats by midseason

What we Can Learn:

Moore’s 2022 season is a cautionary tale in investing highly in receivers on offenses with a dangerously low floor, especially when they aren’t the clear-cut top option. I was fully cognizant of the systematic risk associated with the Jets, but I stubbornly overlooked it all and constantly found myself smashing the “draft” button on Moore last summer. Consider him my biggest L of 2022, maybe ever. Because of his lackluster 2022, his ADP will likely tank in 2023. I will likely have heavy exposure to him again next year, especially if the Jets upgrade at QB. Give me all of the pain. – Ryan

Kyle Pitts

The Kyle Pitts hype train was in full force this past summer, and frankly, a lot of it was justified. After all, he was arguably the greatest tight end prospect of all time coming out of college, and it’s easy to forget that he exceeded 1000 receiving yards as a rookie, which is especially remarkable for a tight end. Because of his prospect profile, hope for positive TD regression (he only scored once in 2021), and the relatively condensed target tree in Atlanta, there was some optimism that Pitts would join the Travis Kelce tier of cheat code tight ends who can consistently post WR1-level numbers at fantasy’s thinnest position, giving his managers a significant competitive advantage. After all, Delanie Walker became a legitimate TE1 in an offense orchestrated by Marcus Mariota and Arthur Smith, so surely Pitts would too, right? Not so fast. Things just never materialized for Pitts in 2022. While I maintain he is an elite real-life talent, it didn’t exactly translate into fantasy value for him. As it turns out, playing in such a low-volume, low-efficiency offense can often be too much to overcome, even for 99th percentile prospects. If you were to look at his situation blindly without names attached, he likely would have been widely dropped in redraft formats after the first few weeks of the season. The fact he remained widely rostered and started until his season-ending injury Week 11 is a testament to how much people wanted to bet on his talent.

What we Can Learn: 

Much like Mooney and Moore, Pitts lackluster 2022 highlights the potential downside of investing in certain offenses. In addition, his struggles can be viewed as a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. At a certain point, it no longer matters if you had a 3rd round ADP. If your rest of season outlook is bleak, it’s usually better to rip off the bandaid and move on from certain guys before it is too late. With the benefit of hindsight, fantasy managers would have been better off cutting ties with Pitts well before his injury and streamed, or even upgraded, even considering the dumpster fire that is the tight end position. – Ryan

Quick Hits- These players below were surprising one way or another this past year, but not as much as the players mentioned above. 

Nick Chubb – Chubb was entering the season as a run only, touchdown dependent RB on a bad offense. Turns out, that doesn’t matter, because he can score from anywhere behind that great O-line. The entire field is that man’s red zone. Chubb ended up scoring 12 touchdowns, almost all of which were in the first half of the season. This made him a true MVP for fantasy, despite the mid-to-late second round draft price. Chubb faded throughout the back half of the season, mainly due to touchdown regression, but continued to put up yards. Interestingly enough, his decline coincided with Deshaun Watson’s return to football, when their offense was supposed to drastically improve. Cleveland tried to throw the ball more with Watson, but in general were not nearly as successful. It will be an interesting trend to watch for this offseason and into next year. – Derek

Aaron Jones – With the departure of Davante Adams, and the Packers general aversion towards adding receivers, Jones looked like an absolute smash pick in the 2nd round. After all, whenever Davante Adams had missed time in previous years, Jones receiving role increased substantially, so the hype was warranted. As it turns out, in the first season of the post-Adams era, he didn’t get the major receiving boost that many had hoped, even if he remained involved. He also only scored 7 total touchdowns, which is partially bad luck, but also partially a function of Green Bay’s declining offense. While he still finished as the RB11 in half-PPR points per game, was very efficient with the opportunities he was given, and remained an every-week starter, he didn’t exactly pay off at his expensive ADP, either – Ryan

Davante Adams – Adams was a consensus 1/2 turn pick this year (in some cases 8 – 10th ish overall), but I had him slotted in the 14th-16th overall range for the bulk of the offseason. Even that marginal disparity caused me to be underweight on him this year. I was worried that Derek Carr would be a major downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, and the likes of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller would be more involved than any of his previous competitors for targets in Green Bay. While he didn’t quite reach his old peak levels this year, his 16.8 half-PPR points per game were good enough for 3rd overall amongst wideouts. He was a target hog in a very concentrated offense all year, much to the delight of his fantasy managers. – Ryan

Courtland Sutton – This one hurts me a lot. As I write these words, tears are running down my face. The ghosts of what should’ve been fantasy championships on the back of a HUGE year from Courtland Sutton haunt my dreams. Russ came to town and we all thought Sutton finally had someone competent to throw him the ball. I believed that Sutton had the best shot to emerge as the number option of Wilson, with his big body and field stretching abilities, I had him pegged as a low-to-mid WR1. Unfortunately, as mentioned above, the wheels fell off for Russ, the Broncos, Sutton, and my hopes of fantasy glory. There isn’t a ton to expand on for Sutton, as I believe it was mostly a Russ and scheme problem, but the scars will run deep for many years. – Derek

DJ Moore – Moore was an aggressive target of mine in the 3rd round. He had posted 1100+ yards every season from 2019-2021, and was theoretically due for positive TD regression one of these years. Baker Mayfield was also supposed to be the best quarterback of his career. Maybe Baker is just the WR1 killer afterall. His production admittedly improved when Sam Darnold took over as starter (and for PJ Walker’s spot starts), but it was probably too little, too late by then.- Ryan