Early Targets and Fades

Photo by Junfu Han, USA Today Network

We’ve made it to the dog days of summer, so it is time to sit on the beach, go on vacation, and relax for a little bit. Before we get too carried away with taking it easy, it’s time to look at the calendar and realize that the football season is fast approaching. Training camp has started, players are getting settled, and hype trains are leaving the station. As fantasy players, we can start to see if our theories from early in the offseason are coming true, or if they are meaningless. At this point of the offseason, it is good to start looking at the valuations of players and deciding if they make sense, and what your take is on them. This is clearly hype train season, with many players being talked about as future hall of famers before taking their first snap, or how there is zero value in a team despite the fact they have lots of talent. In this article, we will try and highlight a few values and fades to target at this point. 

Keep in mind, valuations change quickly at this time of year. If we highlight someone here as a value, but then their ADP jumps 3 rounds, they might no longer be a value. Getting take-lock early in the offseason is one of the most dangerous things that can happen, and is a great way to end up with a trash team by week 4 in the season.

The ADP’s have been taken from Underdog. At this point in the offseason, best ball ADP’s are much more accurate than any re-draft rankings. 

Quarterbacks to Target

Geno Smith – ADP of 115.5 QB 15

Before I get carried away with my Geno Smith love, let me just say, Geno is not going to win anyone their league. My love for Geno comes down to how I am approaching the QB position this year in drafts. In most drafts, I want to leave with one of the top tier guys like Allen, Jackson or Herbert. If none of those players are available to me at a reasonable cost though, I want to punt the position until near the end of the draft and take Geno, instead of grabbing someone like Tua or Deshaun Watson three rounds earlier. 

The bull cast for Geno is very easy. He finished last year as the QB5, and his situation this year has only gotten better this year. The Seahawks have drafted the best receiver in the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and added a better pass catching back in Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks are a team on the rise and should have the offense to keep them in any game.

The knock against Geno is that he will regress after what was clearly a career year last year. While I agree that some regression is likely, I think that he will be helped out enough by his improved weapons and offense to make any drop off less extreme. And while I do not expect him to be a top 5 QB again, I believe he should smash his draft position and finish as the QB 8 – 12. You can confidently draft at the end of your draft and carry him through the year, and then keep an eye on the waiver wire for one of the rookie QB’s if you see a breakout happening if you want more upside.  – Derek

Daniel Jones- ADP of 113.9

I will preface by stating that punting QB is a much less viable strategy than it was even 3 or 4 years ago. That said, if you find yourself missing out on the unquestioned QB1’s ,  Daniel Jones is arguably the best option amongst the signal-callers routinely available in round 10. I remain somewhat of a skeptic of his real-life abilities, but fact remains that he has been on the fantasy radar essentially since day 1, thanks in large part due to his rushing ability.It’s possible that Brian Daboll really opens up the passing offense in year 2 , and the several additions to the receiver room reinforce a commitment to improving his weaponry, even if they still lack a true stud. They also gave him the bag this spring, which reiterates their trust in him. At worst, Jones will be an elite streamer with a rushing floor and strong injury replacement. But I still believe there is room for growth here, and he can easily emerge into a mid-range QB1.- Ryan

Quarterbacks to Fade

Kirk Cousins- ADP of 111.9

If you are looking for a bye week filler, or someone to replace your injured QB1, Kirk Cousins is your guy. However, aside from occasionally completing a stack with someone like Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison, he is not the type of player I traditionally target in drafts. He is the type of player who typically meets his median expectation, but will never truly smash his ADP. Given his age, lack of involvement as a rusher, and the fact that he is a good but not elite passer, there is no reason to believe why 2023 would be any different. The goal of fantasy is to win, not to tread water, and selecting Cousins at cost (especially stackless) is a great way to ensure your team finishes 6th instead of 1st. – Ryan

Running Backs to Target

Jahmyr Gibbs – ADP of 34.5 RB12

Keep in mind when reading this that I am a huge Detroit Lions fan, and so I might be giving a biased take on Gibbs. That has happened before, both to my benefit and my demise, by being super in on Kerryon Johnson, Amon Ra St. Brown, and Kenny Golladay early. I follow the Lions quite closely, and the hype around Gibbs is very strong. The management absolutely loves Gibbs, reaching likely up like 20 picks in the first round to get him, and jettisoning a talented Swift to the Eagles for pennies so that they could fully use Gibbs. 

Gibbs comes to a Lions team that is primed to use him in with high value touches. The Lions have a scheme that uses both running backs on the field at all times, forcing defense to make a wrong move. If the defense brings out a heavy package with an extra linebacker to stop the run, Gibbs will line up in the slot and catch passes. If they bring out an extra defensive back to stop the pass, Gibbs lines up in the backfield. His versatility as a runner and a pass catcher is exactly what the Lions wanted to maximize Ben Johnson’s system. 

The bear case against Gibbs revolves around the lack of opportunities he’ll get to run the ball, especially in the red zone. While that does limit his ceiling, I still think his upside is being downplayed. Gibbs will catch a lot of passes, especially in space, and will be able to do a lot with his opportunity. A pass is worth much more than a run in fantasy football, so his lack of opportunity will not cost him as much as a player like Henry or Jacobs. If Gibbs is healthy all year, I think his floor is a middling RB2 that has upside on weeks when he scores, but his ceiling is legitimately a top 5 back. – Derek

James Conner- ADP of 80.2

James Conner is seemingly perennially disrespected in fantasy circles. Fact is, he is shaping up for a massive workload in Arizona. He has virtually no competition out of the backfield, and one would think ring-chasing vets would prefer to sign elsewhere. Double digit TD’s are firmly in play, and he has also operated as the primary receiving back when his competition has comprised of non-Chase Edmonds options. Conner is being drafted as an RB3 at the moment, but it should surprise no one if he ends up as a strong RB2 in 2023, if not a fringe RB1. – Ryan

Running Backs to Fade

Alexander Mattison – ADP of 58.2

I am getting some serious 2021 Mike Davis vibes from Mattison. Yes, it’s true that Davis was a 28 year old who had bounced from team to team, whereas Mattison is only 25 and still plays for the team that drafted him. However, there are still a lot of parallels. Mike Davis was a career backup who is/was Just A Guy from a talent perspective, but he was forced up draft boards due to the assumption that he would take the lions share of opportunities out of the backfield. I remain skeptical that Mattison will just walk into, or at least sustain, any sort of bellcow role. 

It was mentioned off the top that he is Just A Guy, who has had varying degrees of effectiveness throughout his NFL career. The Vikings also have a number of younger backs, namely Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, who they appear excited about and could conceivably carve out roles in this offense. There are also a number of veteran backs who remain unsigned as of this writing. As long as this teams depth chart remains relatively thin, there will always be the possibility of them adding more pieces, and thus adds to Mattison’s fragility.

To me, I just don’t see the upside in drafting Mattison at cost. The time to draft him was this spring in the double digit rounds before Dalvin Cook was cut, for all of you sickos who draft year-round. Best case, he holds off the competition and finishes as a volume-based RB2, which is exactly what he is being drafted as. However, there are multiple paths towards him losing out on volume, and thus flopping as a fantasy pick this year as well. Drafting marginal talents who are forced up draft boards solely because of “projected volume” have historically been dicey at best, and reckless at worst. Give me Aaron Jones or Kenneth Walker all day at cost instead. I would also much rather wait a round or 2 and dip into the Rachaad White, James Conner, David Montgomery tier as well. If his ADP slips into the latter range, I’m in, but for now, I am simply not interested.- Ryan

Derrick Henry (ADP of 21.6 RB7) 

If you can look me in the eye and tell me you fully believe that Henry will get the required 30 touches a game and not get hurt, go ahead and draft him. I fully expect this year to be the drop off for Henry. They will need to reduce his workload in order to keep him fresh, and his O-line is near the worst in the league. Shoot for someone that catches the ball instead. He will likely be fine in fantasy, but “fine” isn’t gonna cut it as a second round pick. The opportunity cost is simply too strong. Within that range there are other players at all positions who I prefer- Derek

Wide Receivers to Target

Amon-Ra St.Brown- ADP of 13.7

It may not sound revolutionary to target someone who is routinely selected by the middle of round 2 and finished as a WR1 last year, but bare with me. I am flag planting the Sun God as the smash pick of 2023. Aside from the consensus Big Four receivers in Fantasyland, he is my top choice to finish as the overall WR1 this year, and there is still plenty of room for him to pay off at cost. The USC product has simply done nothing but deliver at every opportunity at the NFL level. As the unquestioned top option in an offense that we’re excited about, and with an ankle issue that lingered for much of 2022 seemingly behind him, he could be in prime position to be the wide receiver to roster this year. He is often a ½ turn pick in best ball, which still makes him a target, but he often falls to the mid, if not late 2nd, in home league types, which is easy money. 

St.Brown is the type of receiver who can dominate out of the slot and rack up layup targets, and is also a nasty route runner and dynamic enough, to beat defenders 1 on 1 and break off big plays, which is ripe for elite fantasy production. He is tied with other proven studs Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas for most receptions ever in a players first two seasons in the NFL. Yes, you read that right. With that in mind, there is reason to believe that a year 3 eruption is incoming. This is a perfect example of talent and environment colliding. Not only is this an offense that is likely to put up points, but he is in line for heavy target volume. Jameson Williams is set to miss the first 6 games of the year, and frankly, we aren’t sure what to make of him yet anyway. TJ Hockenson is long gone. Marvin Jones is a shell of his former self. Josh Reynolds is Just A Guy. Moreover, while they may not be as bad as they were last season, this is still a defense that is likely to keep the offense on their toes and force this team into a lot of competitive, pass-happy game scripts. With all of this in mind, the stars are aligning for a massive year in Motown for the Sun God. – Ryan

Jordan Addison- ADP of 70.9

I usually take the vacated targets narratives with a grain of salt, but I think this is an example of where it could be an opportunity for fantasy managers to exploit. There are rumblings that he may not start the season as Minnesota’s WR2 , in the Adam Thielen role if you will, but I’m old enough to remember when Justin Jefferson was behind Bisi Johnson to start his rookie campaign. I am not saying Addison is Jefferson, but the point is we should not panic because of how early August depth charts look. Addison is more than talented enough to earn the WR2 role in a condensed offense that should put some points up. A clearly washed Thielen put up a 70-716-6 statline last year, so why can’t a promising 1st round rookie exceed that this year? – Ryan

Wide Receivers to Fade

Deebo Samuel- ADP of 33.7 

I am a big fan of Deebo Samuel the talent, but we need to acknowledge that his outstanding 2021 campaign may have been an anomaly from a fantasy perspective. After finishing as the WR2 in half-PPR points per game in 2021, largely fueled by a TD bender (14, including 8 rushing scores on just 59 carries), he fell back to just WR25 in 2022. He was a popular fade last summer, and while he didn’t totally flop, he didn’t pay off at his ~ 2 /3 turn ADP either. Given the nature of San Francisco’s offense,  the latter appears to be a more likely outcome. He will likely be competing heavily with Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey for targets in what will likely be a lower volume, gameplan-dependent passing offense. An aDot of 4.5 yards like he had in 2022 is simply very underwhelming and concerning for a wideout being drafted as early as he is, and it is worth nothing that his role in the offense was diminished post-CMC trade. He will certainly have his spiked weeks, and will likely still be an every-week fantasy starter. However, at that cost, you will likely be banking on outlier-level efficiency to truly pay off, which is always a risky proposition. Within his ADP range, I would prefer to select the likes of Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson, and a number of running backs.- Ryan

Calvin Ridley (ADP of 27.2 WR15) 

I’m pretty sure that Ridley is a good football player, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him be great. Ridley broke out with over 1300 yards and 9 tds in 2020, but was only average in 2021 before being suspended last year. At the very least, it has been a long time since Ridley has played competitive football, and will most likely need to take a few weeks before he’s fully up to speed. I like to start a season strong, so if my early third round pick is only treading water for the first month, I’ll be very disappointed. 

In a world where Ridley comes back and only plays at his 2021 pace, you’ve wildly over paid. Ridley is also coming back to a team with a fairly strong receiving corp. He’s no longer the only option for a pass first team like he was in Atlanta. If he cannot fully differentiate himself from Kirk, and is only a 1A, he will also be a disappointment. Ridley should still have a good season as Lawrence breaks out, but I believe he is priced near his ceiling, without enough consideration for his slower start. – Derek

Tight Ends to Target

Greg Dulcich- ADP of 125.6

Dulcich quietly put together a solid campaign in 2022 as a 3rd round rookie. He commanded an 18% target share en route to a 33-410-2 statline in 10 games- good enough for a TE19 finish in points per game in a broken Denver offense. That may not seem like a lot on the surface, but keep in mind that rookie tight ends tend to have a steep learning curve in year 1. His relatively strong peripherals, and the fact that he did something as a rookie bodes well for his chances of a year 2 breakout. I am not suggesting that he will join the Travis Kelce tier of cheat code tight ends, but it would not be surprising if he became a firm TE1 and provided weekly stability at fantasy’s weakest position. The unfortunate injury situations to Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler do open up opportunities for an increased target share, and he can act as a security blanket of sorts for a rejuvenated Russell Wilson. This is a Broncos offense that has literally nowhere to go but up, and the hiring of Sean Payton certainly does not hurt matters. Dulcich is one of my favourite tight ends at cost, and is probably my favourite punt option, should you miss out or pass on the earlier-round options. – Ryan

Tight Ends to Fade

TJ Hockenson – ADP of 51.6 TE3

I don’t want to be too harsh, but Hockenson is bad at football. That may be a little harsh, but it isn’t an extreme exaggeration. Hockenson was a top 10 draft pick, who was drafted to be a weapon like Andrews, Kelce or Kittle, but he has never lived up to those expectations. The Lions provided him with lots of targets and favourable matchups, but rarely did Hockenson succeed. Last year, in 8 games with the Lions, he finished with above 50 yards just twice. Things got better after the trade to Minnesota, but he still only finished as a top 5 fantasy tight end one time. Hockenson eventually finished the season as the TE3 overall, but it was solely on the back of 2 blow up games, in which he combined for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Hockenson is being drafted as if he is a lock to be a week in, week out difference maker for your team. He’s being drafted as the type of player who will offer you a safe floor on weeks that he doesn’t score, and week winning upside for his breakout games. Unfortunately, that is not who he is. He easily gets schemed out of games, meaning he will finish lots of games with 3 catches for under 50 yards. Minnesota has also replaced the aged Thielen with rookie Addison, who should replace Hockenson as the number two option in the receiving game. While I still expect Hock to have his fair share of blow up games, his off games come too often for me to be willing to take him as the third tight end off the board. I’ll happily take Goedert or Waller two full rounds later. – Derek

Quick Hits-Targets

Lamar Jackson (34.8)- The hiring of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator , and the addition of multiple wide receivers suggests an intention to implement a more balanced offense this year. Everyone knows about his ceiling as a rusher. I don’t think he is that far off from fantasy’s Big Three quarterbacks, and an overall QB1 finish is well within his range of outcomes.- Ryan

David Montgomery (76.5) – Montgomery is a plug and play pick if you’ve invested heavily in receivers in the opening round. The quick case for Monty is that he will get lots of red zone work behind an elite O-line that likes to run in the red zone. I expect him to get close to a thousand rushing yards with double digit touchdowns.-Derek

Ezekiel Elliott/Leonard Fournette/Kareem Hunt- In a vacuum, all of these guys are likely washed. However , these guys are essentially free in drafts right now, and their ADP’s will skyrocket several rounds when they eventually do sign. Whether we like it or not, they are likely to have some kind of role no matter where they sign, or at the very least,they have reasonably strong contingent upside. Get the discount before it’s too late. – Ryan

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (59.8)- I think his underdog ADP is reasonable, but I am highlighting him because he could completely smash this year and he will likely go way later than this in your home league. People will likely be scared off on account of the fact that he is competing with Lockett and Metcalf for targets, but there is the possibility that he is simply a total stud who will force the Seahawks hand. Remember, he was arguably the best WR in 2021 on an Ohio State team that also included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Not to mention, this offense can easily support multiple strong receivers. Target JSN aggressively this summer.- Ryan

Mark Andrews (29.4)- I would feel comfortable spending a late 2nd on Andrews, but he is frequently available in the mid 3rd, sometimes late 3rd. I had mentioned that I am bullish on the Ravens passing offense , and Andrews would likely be the biggest beneficiary of any potential ascension. Andrews is one of few tight ends who has genuine week winning and even league winning upside.- Ryan

Quick Hits-Fades

Dak Prescott (105.9). There is nothing inherently wrong with Dak, but like Kirk, I see little room to truly smash his ADP here. His rushing upside has understandably evaporated post-ankle injury, and he is another guy who is simply good but not elite as a passer. Give me Anthony Richardson at cost instead, and I would also rather wait a round and select Geno Smith or Daniel Jones instead.- Ryan

Najee Harris ( 39.5)- A safe bet to be an RB2 but little upside at cost. Is simply not an efficient player , we don’t know if this offense is any good, Jaylen Warren is nipping at the heels, and there are simply fewer RB targets up for grabs sans Ben. Again, he is okay in a vacuum, but when I am on the clock, it seems there are always several guys I prefer instead , regardless of position.- Ryan 

Odell Beckham Jr (109.0)- I cannot understand for the life of me why a soon-to-be 31 year old receiver who has barely played over the last 3 years and re-tore his ACL the last time he was in action is routinely being selected around the 9/10 turn. Give me Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers instead. At receiver specifically, I would also rather wait a round or so and dip into the Rondale Moore, Zay Jones tier instead.- Ryan