13 Bold Predictions for the 2023 Fantasy Season
Photo by Paul Sancya of AP Photo
NFL football is finally here. To get you set up for the fantasy campaign, we at Go For Two have some bold predictions for you. Note that we don’t necessarily fully believe in each of these claims, just that we really believe that these are all within the realm of possibility this year, as outlandish as some of them may seem on the surface.
Derek has crafted up takes 1-6, with Ryan coming up with predictions 7-13
Bold Predictions
- Neither AJ Brown nor Devonta Smith finish as top 12 wide receivers
The Eagles have one of the most talented receiving rooms in the league, and the first and third round ADPs for Brown and Smith respectively reflect that. Unfortunately, neither of these players will be smash picks. The quick case against these guys centers around some regression from the Eagles offense, but also a lot of targets going to Dallas Goedert. Smith didn’t break out last year until after Goedert was hurt. If all are healthy, they will chew into each other’s production enough to keep the wide receivers outside of the top 12.
- Ezekiel Elliott has 3 multi-touchdown games
Before you get all fired up saying that Zeke is dust and won’t perform well in New England, I just want to say, I agree with you. I’m not going to sit here saying that Zeke will be a great pick or an every week starter, but I do think he’ll have a bunch of blow up weeks against bad defenses. The Pats will use him on the one yard line to pound in touch downs, and that will happen more than we are expecting this year. One a quick side note, in games when he doesn’t score, Zeke will be completely unusable, so pick you weeks wisely.
- Jahmyr Gibbs flirts with a 1000/1000 yard season and finishes as a top 3 PPR running back
Gibbs is going to have a great year, finishing with over 800 rushing and receiving yards, flirting with the illustrious 1000/1000 yard season. Gibbs may start slow, but will be electric in the back half of the year, leading him to be an elite back after week 5, and finishing as the overall RB3. If touchdowns fall his way, his ceiling is as high as anyone in the league. Next year he’s a top of the first round pick.
As a bonus to this prediction, David Montgomery also has a great season, with both Lions finishing in the top 12. Don’t believe me? Look at the last time Dan Campbell coached a top end rooming running back and look what happened with Kamara and Ingram.
- Mike Evans finishes over half his games as a WR5 or below
Mike Evans was wildly inconsistent last year, finishing as the WR15, while only having two weeks in the entire season as a WR12 or above. That inconsistency continues this year to a greater scale, with the highs still existing, but the lows being even lower. Baker is a good long ball thrower, which will give him blow up weeks, but on weeks when Evans and Baker don’t connect it’ll be ugly. Expect lots of 2 for 24 and no score type of games.
- Kyle Pitts disappoints again, requests trade out of Atlanta
Freezing cold take: Kyle Pitts is a great player. Despite that Arthur Smith uses him like an 8 year old playing Madden, just using him on go routes which their QB can never hit. Pitts starts the season as a low end TE1, before using the running back playbook of getting “injured” and requesting a trade. Whether or not the trade develops, I think Pitts will be decent in the back half of the season because of better usage, either by the reluctant Falcons or by his new team.
- Ja’Marr Chase eclipses 2000 receiving yards
Ja’Marr Chase cements himself this year as the top receiver in the game, and among the best in this generation with the first ever 2000 yard season. Chase will also score double digit touchdowns and will finish as the overall WR1 by a healthy margin.
- Brandon Aiyuk Outscores Deebo Samuel
Looking at the historical metrics, this really shouldn’t be a bold prediction, but Aiyuk continues to be drafted far below Deebo. Last year Aiyuk finished as the WR15 with over 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns. Aiyuk also outscored Deebo in points per game. In every metric you can look at, Aiyuk is the player to roster and there will be no question about it by the end of the season. Factor in Deebo’s running back-level aDot, and decreased usage Post CMC-trade, the stars are aligning for Aiyuk to be San Francisco’s true WR1, with Deebo being in more of a joker role that is more reliant on touchdowns than anything else.
- Jake Ferguson Outscores Every Rookie Tight End
If you have employed a strategy of blindly fading all rookie tight ends over the years, you haven’t really been burned by that too badly. So the question begs: where can I find the breakout, late-round TE who emerges as an every-week option? Well, looking for reasonably talented players in good offenses who figure to be near every-down players is probably a solid starting point. Ferguson figures to check all of those boxes. While they did use a 2nd round selection on Luke Schoonmaker, all signs point towards the 2nd year Ferguson earning the TE1 job in Dallas. Dalton Schultz is Just A Guy from a talent perspective but was able to sustain fantasy relevance during his Cowboys tenure thanks in large part to how fantasy-friendly this role is. Assuming Ferguson maintains said role, look for him to emerge as one of the better late-round tight ends and one of the bigger steals in fantasy this year.
- Terrace Marshall Is The Receiver to Roster in Carolina
If Bryce Young plays well as a rookie, it is reasonable to assume that at least one Panthers pass catcher will be fantasy-relevant. It is for this reason that I try to leave every best ball draft with at least one weapon from this team. DJ Chark, Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall all had ADP’s well outside of the top 100 this summer, and all were worthwhile dart throws. Who is to say that Terrace Marshall won’t emerge from this group? The 2021 2nd rounder hasn’t necessarily had the start to his career that many had hoped, but he at least showed some signs of life last year after a disastrous rookie campaign. He was productive in college and is reasonably athletic, two indicators that a breakout may eventually be coming. Add in an ambiguous receiving corps ( DJ Chark is injured, Thielen is washed, Mingo is likely pretty raw) with a quarterback who was recently taken 1st overall, Marshall is basically a free gamble on this offense and could conceivably emerge as a viable flex play this season.
- Chris Olave Finishes as a Top 5 Receiver
Olave was excellent last year, finishing with an 82.5 overall rating on pff. He finished with over a 1000 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie, despite some terrible quarterback play by Andy Dalton. Now he gets the improved Derek Carr under center, who, despite his faults, has a tendency to hyper target his top guy and provides great receiver value (see Adams, Davante). If Carr is even slightly above average, Olave should be an elite option all year. As Alex Caruso pointed out, Olave is also in elite company in terms of rookie year yards per route run. Not saying that is the be all, end all, but it is reassuring to know that his closest peers in terms of rookie year production all became superstars at the NFL level.
- Seattle Enables 3 Top 24 Receivers in PPG
Many people are worried about a possible regression to the mean from Geno Smith, but we remain high on him here at Go For Two. With potentially 3 gamebreaking pass catchers, there is definitely reason to be bullish on this passing offense. The 2020 Panthers came very close to achieving this feat with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, just to list one example, and most would argue that this Seahawks team boasts a better QB/WR room than that Carolina team. When you also consider that the likes of Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Dee Eskridge are unlikely to make a significant dent in this offense, this is truly shaping up to be a condensed, high-efficiency attack. Don’t sweat the Too Many Mouths to Feed narratives, there is ample opportunity for each of Metcalf, Lockett and JSN to eat this year.
- Travis Etienne is the Closest Thing We Have to “ This Year’s Josh Jacobs”
Travis Etienne has become one of the more polarizing early round picks in fantasy this season. While most would agree he will at minimum be a solid fantasy asset, there is much debate regarding how much upside he truly has. While he was highly efficient as a runner and did see a boost in value by midseason, he was not as involved as a passer and many had hoped, and thus, was not the smash pick that many had hoped. Much like how Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, and Brandon Bolden had people nervous about Jacobs usage a year ago, Tank Bigsby and even Jamycal Hasty have people worried about ETN this year. Personally, I am not overly concerned. I personally think Bigsby is more of a glorified handcuff and change-of-pace option, whereas Hasty may occasionally spell Etienne on the odd passing down, but not much more. My theory is that the Jaguars were easing Etienne in to a degree last year, given that he had suffered a devastating Lisfranc injury. Now 2 years removed from said injury, I believe the Jags plan to unleash him this year. While many people made a lot about his lack of usage and production as a receiver last year, his skillset and college production suggest we may not have seen the best of him yet. It is probably relevant to bring up that he played with Trevor Lawrence at Clemson as well, meaning there is definitely an element of trust and familiarity with one another. If and when the Jags unleash ETN, we are looking at a talented three-down back in an ascending offense. Should that come to fruition, Etienne will be one of the smash picks of 2023 and should only rise up draft boards next summer.
- Najee Harris Finishes Outside the Top 30 in PPG
Najee Harris was one of the easiest fades in fantasy last year, and as it turns out, those who bet against him were not burned by it at all. An RB19 finish in PPG actively hurt those who took him around the 1 / 2 turn last year, and you’d have to really squint to see a ceiling case this year. Although he has slipped in ADP, it seems likely that he will be nothing more than a volume-based RB2. That doesn’t seem horrible in a vacuum, but we want to crush our early-round picks and find league-winners. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Jaylen Warren, who was actually more explosive and efficient than Harris a season ago, forces the Steelers hand and creates more of a 60/40, if not 50/50 timeshare. That would be a devastating development for Najee, who is frankly not a good real life back and needs all of the volume and high-value touches he can get to sustain fantasy viability. Someone with an RB2 ceiling with devastating downside doesn’t seem overly appealing to me, and I would suspect Warren will be more involved than Harris supporters would want. You would have to think the honeymoon period associated with being a 1st round pick is nearing its end, much to the dismay of Harris drafters.
