F1 Season Preview

Photo from Formula1.com

Once again, it is the start of a new season for F1. It is an exciting time for all of the teams as there are infinite possibilities for the upcoming year. In their own minds, this is the year that Ferrari finally has a reliable car and comes up with good race strategies, Mercedes wins Lewis Hamilton his record 8th world championship, Aston Martin’s heavy investment finally pays off, and Williams finally starts building towards respectability once again. Unfortunately, the best case scenario can not come true for all teams and there is bound to be disappointment at some point during the season from all teams and drivers. In this short preview, we will breakdown what to expect from each team and even give a few bold predictions for the exciting season ahead.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen and Red Bull truly dominated last year. After two DNF’s in the first three races from Verstappen, he went ahead and won a record 15 races, winning the world championship with a record 454 points. The Red Bull car was truly dominant in its straight line speed, making passing in DRS zones easy work for both Verstappen and Perez. This domination is expected to continue this coming season, with Red Bull being the easy favourite to win the Constructors Championship and Verstappen to win the Drivers Championship. The only thing standing in their way might be themselves. If Red Bull would fail to win this year, it would be on the back of reliability issues or failing to correct design problems early in the season. With very few rule changes from last year though, expect Red Bull to storm out the gate this year and keep that momentum rolling right through to the end of the season.

Ferrari

Ferrari steps into this year with sky high optimism, and this time, it’s not unfounded. Ferrari took a major step forward last year, finishing second in the constructor’s championship after years of underwhelming performances. While the 2022 car still lagged Red Bull in straight line speed, they were the fastest car in the corners, routinely hanging onto Red Bull’s tail on the slower tracks. They also hate great qualifying pace, with Ferrari starting on pole in 12 races. This proves they have the car that can at least challenge Red Bull, they just need the strategy to do it. Enter Fred Vasseur, who takes over as the new team principal. Vasseur has the reputation as a strong, competent leader from his time at Renault and Alfa Romeo. It’s a big ask, but if Vasseur can reduce the mistakes that the team makes, develop strong race strategies, and continue developing a winning culture, Ferrari could really challenge Red Bull. This is the strongest Ferrari has looked in a decade, now it’s time to show some results.

Mercedes 

Mercedes enters the season trying to rebuild after a disastrous 2022 season. After winning 8 straight constructor’s championships, Mercedes came out flat last year, finishing in 3rd, and more than 200 points behind Red Bull. They battled porpoising all season long, resulting in them being blown away by most teams in a straight line. While they started to show progress by the end of the season, with Russell securing his first win in Brazil, they still have a huge mountain to climb to reach the heights they recently knew. Mercedes still has an incredible engineering team, and a driver pair in Russell and Hamilton that can compete with any one. Will these strengths be enough for them to overcome the hole they’re still in from last year? Will enough cracks show up in the Red Bull and Ferrari performances to give Mercedes a fighting chance?

Alpine

Alpine had a successful 2022 season, capturing the coveted “best of the rest” title by finishing fourth in the constructors championship. They come into the 2023 season with a very strong car once again and a new all French driver pairing to hopefully spark some life into a team that would love to challenge the top three teams. Ocon and Gasly as a driver pairing is a high risk, high reward situation. They have made it no secret that they do not like each other, and neither will be willing to play second fiddle on this team. If their personalities can be well managed, they should push each other to greater heights, leading to strong performances and unexpected podiums from each driver. Alternatively, if their egos get in the way, the team could self-destruct under the weight of petty positional battles, needless risks, and ugly infighting. 

McLearn

After years of moving forward in the standings, McLearn took a small step back last year. The optimist will say that is because Riccardo was very weak, and having a respectable driver beside Norris can only mean a return to the top 4 teams. The pessimist will say that the only reason they could reach the heights they did is because of the brilliance of Norris, and the car is actually quite weak. This year will be the proving ground for these theories, as Riccardo has been replaced by the hyped rookie Piastri. Unfortunately, the pace of the car has had some negative momentum year over year, and there has been some less than encouraging reports surrounding the car during the offseason. This could prove to be a difficult car to step into for Piastri, and if the pace is lacking, it will be interesting to see how long Norris can pull rabbits out of the hat before he becomes far too discouraged to keep putting the effort in.

Alfa Romeo

Alfa Romeo looked like they were taking a big step forward in the beginning of the year last year, with lots of points rolling in on the back of Valteri Bottas, and rookie Zhou Guanyu putting up lots of promising performances. The middle of the season proved to be a huge disappointment though, with a large portion of the races providing zero points for the team. Going into this year, Alfa will need to prove that they can consistently stick in the midfield, and snatch points whenever the opportunity shows up. Bottas and Zhou have proven to be capable drivers, and the Ferrari engine that Alfa uses will be quick, so will they be able to put forth a car that can hold on in the midfield? If they can limit mistakes on track, and provide the drivers a car that will finish every race, Alfa has a strong opportunity to move up the standings this year

Aston Martin

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but last year was a huge disappointment for Aston Martin. Lawrence Stroll has invested heavily in the team, trying to bring them from the back half of the midfield to a challenger of the big three teams. Last year though, they frankly just got the car wrong. After sitting just ahead of lowly Williams for most of the year, Aston started to step up at the end of the year, finishing in 7th. Aston have put their hopes into the elderly Alonso to make the step forward this year, and so far, the reviews have been immaculate. Media reports, preseason testing times, and driver reviews have all been glowing this year for the car. Does this mean the team is finally ready to push the top teams, or is this just grandstanding in an attempt to scare the other teams? Another major question will be, if Aston Martin does show some success, will they be able to handle it, or will they begin to crack under the pressure. It’s one thing to finish at the top of the midfield for the first few races, it’s another to keep it when Alpine and McLearn make mid-season improvements. 

Haas

Every year Haas does something wildly unexpected. When expectations are low, they blow everyone’s socks off, finishing as high as 5th in the constructor’s championship. They’ve also fallen off significantly some years, finishing last with 0 points in 2021. Last year was a step forward again, finishing in 8th, but can they keep that momentum up? Mick Shumacher has been replaced with the stabilizing Nico Hulkenberg, in an attempt to provide some more consistent results in the points. With a safe driver lineup, can Haas provide the car to push themselves back into the mid-field. Most years, Haas comes out strong at the beginning of the year, before falling off throughout the summer and fall. Will they still start strong this year, and if so, will they be able to upgrade the car throughout the year to keep up with their competition?

Alphatauri

Being the Red Bull junior team, Alphatauri will never be pushing themselves to the top of the standings. They have always been, and always will be, a training ground for the big team, and will be happy to collect some points along the way.  After years of being anchored by strong performances from Pierre Gasly, Alphatauri will need to find a new way to consistently score points this year. A large part of this responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Yuki Tsunoda. This will truly be a make-or-break season for Yuki, who has shown flashes of promise in the past, but not enough to continue to take up a valuable seat if he doesn’t step up. If Tsunoda can’t separate himself from rookie Nyck De Vries, this will likely be his final season in Formula 1. If the driver pairing turns out to be stronger than expected, will they be able to challenge throughout the midfield? 

Williams

Everyone’s favourite underdog team is rolling out a new car once again, with continued hopes of making a step forward towards respectability. Williams has hired a new team principal from Mercedes in James Vowles. Vowles is highly respected throughout the sport, but has a massive job to do in order to get this team back towards its former glory. The results of his leadership clearly won’t be arriving immediately, but hopefully there are signs of stability in the team strategy, better pit changes, and a renewed sense of optimism around the team. It will also be an interesting year for the driver lineup. Alex Albon exceeded expectations by all accounts last year, so can he continue to prove he is an above average talent? Can rookie Logan Sargeant give the team more than fan-favourite Latifi did? Will Williams be able to gobble up points when the opportunity shows up, or will they be relegated to peaking at 12th even on their best weeks?

Season Predictions

I considered naming this section “Bold Predictions” but much of what will be written here is actually quite predictable. With that though, there are a few predictions here that would be quite shocking if they came true, so keep that in mind in 10 months when these are all reviewed

1. Max Verstappen wins the world championship and Red Bull wins the constructors championship 
2. Verstappen breaks his own record this year with 16 total races wins
3. Mercedes’ struggles continue, finishing third in the constructors championship again. George Russell makes the most out of the car though, finishing 4th in the drivers championship and cementing himself as the team’s No. 1 for the future.
4. The Alpine car is strong, but the Gasly and Ocon will clash often, leading to multiple crashes between the two. Those precious points will cost Alpine the No. 4 finish in the constructor’s championship, ultimately finishing in 5th.
5. Aston Martin truly makes a step up, finishing 4th in the constructor’s championship. Both Alonso and Lance Stroll will finish with multiple podiums.
6. McLearn takes a huge step back, finishing 8th in the constructor’s championship. Norris will continue to be strong, but Piastri will never finish higher than 8th in a race.
7. Bottas finishes a race on the podium.
8. Alphatauri’s season is a disaster, finishing behind Williams.
9. The Hulkenberg signing proves to be a shrewd move by Haas, with Hulk finishing ahead of Magnussen in the drivers championship.
10. There will be only 4 race winners this year. Only Verstappen, Perez, LeClerc, and Russell will win races.