Preparing for the Fantasy Playoffs: Player Archetypes to Cut

Preparing for the Fantasy Playoffs: Player Archetypes to Cut

Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice, Getty Images

The real fantasy season is upon us! If you were able to survive the war of attrition that is the regular season , I congratulate you. Given the single-elimination nature of it all,  coupled with the messy variance associated with fantasy, almost anything can happen over the course of a 3 week span. I’ve seen teams that have barely stumbled into the playoffs and looked dead in the water manage to pull it all together and win it all, and conversely, I’ve seen teams that were seemingly unstoppable on paper lay a giant collective egg at the worst possible time, and flame out after an 70 point dud. The lesson in all of this is that while the playoffs can be a wild ride, your chances of success will be enhanced with sound strategy. In the points below,  I will outline player archetypes you can safely cut bait with this time of year, as well as some general tips regarding strategy.

As you will notice, the strategy in the playoffs differs compared to your optimal draft strategy, and it certainly differs from how you would manage your team throughout the regular season.With bye week season now a thing of the past, and the need for immediate results, there are various players who have become significantly devalued as the postseason begins. In short, any player who won’t feasibility start for you over the next 3 weeks, and who you aren’t particularly worried about being used against you , can safely be dropped in favour of higher-upside options. Even if the player in question has given you usable weeks, now is not the time to be sentimental. Sometimes you need to just rip the bandaid off and move on. Only the next 3 weeks matter, and there is really no place for the roster cloggers that will be discussed below. 

This is also the time of the year when knowing your league is of the utmost importance. Familiarize yourself with your potential opponents and their roster construction. Learn to understand their general tendencies and strategies. Playing defense against your leaguemates and blocking them from opportunities to improve their team is a generally sound strategy, but it becomes exponentially more important at this time of the year. Remember: the goal is literally to win 3 consecutive head-to-head matchups. One more loss, and your season is over. Manage your team as if that is the case. 

Of course, many of the points in this article are case-by-case, and not all leagues are the same. However, I hope this article proves to be a generally reliable framework for how to manage your fantasy teams at this time of year. So without further ado, here are some player archetypes that you can safely cut bait with:

Volatile One-Trick Pony Receivers

Rostering these types of players is an absolute roller coaster, and frankly, are not worth your time at this juncture. The allure of starting a player who can change his fortunes within the snap of a finger can be enticing, but in reality, they can just as easily sink your team. The weekly start/sit decisions associated with these types can induce several headaches, and it is often just best to move on. In general, I think many people are a tad overconfident in their abilities to identify which players are truly boom/bust, so don’t get these archetypes confused. I am not referring to players with a diverse route tree in generally efficient offenses with heavy involvement who happen to have mixed box score results. These players are generally “safer” than perceived – it is just the nature of the wide receiver position. I am instead referring to those whose skillset isn’t particularly diverse, who aren’t as involved in their teams passing attack, and who’s fantasy impact is largely contingent upon whether they haul in a deep bomb. Those players are truly feast or famine, and while they may have 3-80-1 type of upside, they can just as easily put up a big goose egg and hurt your team. It is also nearly impossible to predict when these types of performances will occur- it often isn’t related to matchup especially given the random nature of these plays and the incredibly low volume these receivers tend to earn .If you’ve made it this far, chances are you have enough better options, anyway. Let your opponents cross their fingers for that 65 yard score, and instead opt for players who have larger roles in their offenses. 

TLDR: fade low-target share, high-aDot receivers

Notable examples: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Nelson Agholor

No Ceiling low aDot Receivers

The goal of fantasy is to win, that should be obvious enough by now. With that in mind,  there are too many people who fall into the trap of playing it safe. During the regular season, volume based players can be useful to have on your team, as they provide a safe option during bye weeks and can sometimes see their role increase if other receivers get hurt. They also offer consistent performances every week, so you know what you’ll be getting when you start them. This usefulness has expired by the time playoffs come around though, as these players will never go out and win you a matchup. The goal in the fantasy playoffs is to outscore your opponent in a single elimination game, and it is unlikely that a receiver who’s ceiling is 55 yards will help you do that. It can be scary to get rid of these players after you’ve likely had them on your team all season, and were started periodically throughout the year, but it will be much more useful to grab a high upside running back, or an extra defense for a future matchup instead. If the injury bug bites you, you can always go back to the waiver wire and pick up a usable option, as there are plenty of single week starters available at this time of year. 

TLDR: low aDOt receivers who won’t goose but have no ceiling aren’t particularly helpful this time of year

Notable Examples: Russell Gage, Hunter Renfrow

Young Receivers Who Have Yet to Break Out

Going into the season, we all had big hopes for young receivers like Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, and Skyy Moore. It seemed like every week, one of them broke out, making the owners of the other players hopeful that it was their turn next. Unfortunately, not all receivers breakout in their rookie year. For every Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jamar Chase, there is a N’keal Harry and Jalen Reagor still waiting to break out. The sad reality is, the runway for players to breakout is getting too short. Even if your rookie has a great week this week, they’ll certainly be on your bench, so you won’t collect anything from it. Then, will you trust them enough to start them in the semi-finals? The most likely scenario is, if a rookie starts to break out now, you won’t trust them in your lineup until the final week of the fantasy season, which is too much of a risk to keep them on your bench now. You’ve waited long enough, try again next year. Free them to the waiver wire, and then spend some of your FAAB budget on them if a breakout actually happens.

TLDR: If you still have hope for these players, defer your hope to 2023 or dynasty. They have no place on redraft rosters. 

Notable Examples: Skyy Moore, Tyquan Thornton

Running Backs With Little Path to High-Value Touches

The two things that really tilt fantasy impact for running backs are targets, and carries inside the 10 yard line. We should know that by now. Ideally , your fantasy running back has both of those roles, but even one will suffice. Backs who get neither of those are severely limited in fantasy value. It can be incredibly frustrating to watch your running back get carry after carry on first and second downs, just to see a different back come in for pass catching work and in the red zone. You can see your running back pass the eye test and have a decent game on the ground, just to finish the game with 74 yards, no catches, and no touchdowns. Those single digit points aren’t going to get it done for you in the playoffs. It makes more sense to prioritize running backs in good matchups with fewer overall touches, but more high-value touches. If you are looking for multi-week starters, feel free to drop these empty calorie players for someone that has a chance to break out, like Chuba Hubbard. In addition, many of these empty-calorie backs are one or multiple injuries away from a role change, further capping their fantasy value. As an added bonus, these empty calorie backs are often picked up and played by teams going through injury problems. Feel fortunate if your opponent picks up and plays one of these players, as they are severely limiting their upside. 

TLDR: Getting exclusively empty calorie touches every week isn’t helping you win money

Notable Examples: Tyler Allgeier, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Running Backs Who Are Pigeonholed in One Specific Role

Similar to some of the segments above, many of these players have a weekly role on their respective teams, which creates the perception that they are “ safe floor” plays. It is also more important than ever this time of year to stash running backs who have high-end contingent upside, whether it be from a simple role change, or more frequently, an injury to someone ahead of them in the pecking order. Issue is, some running backs are pigeonholed into one specific role no matter what, and would be unlikely to see a significant role change either way. Michael Carter operates as the Jets receiving back whenever he is healthy, but we have seen little interest from the Jets in terms of featuring him as a rusher in more than a change-of-pace role, even with stud rookie Breece Hall on the shelf. If one of James Cook or Devin Singletary were to go down , for example, Nyheim Hines would have some level of involvement, especially as a pass-catcher, but based on his skillset and historical usage there is almost no evidence to suggest he would take on a high-volume role. Ditto With Caleb Huntley in Atlanta. His bowling-ball style of between-the-tackles running has made him a viable option in Atlanta’s rushing rotation, but there is almost zero scenario in which he would have any remote role in the passing game , and there are too many hurdles to overcome in order for him to get a lion’s share of the carries. These are the types of players who will give you usable weeks throughout the year, and as such may be called upon as a spot starter, but they don’t have nearly the amount of upside that we are targeting this time of year, especially if your team was good enough to make the playoffs to begin with

TLDR: these guys may have a touch floor, but not enough contingent upside to justify rostering at this time of year

Notable examples: Nyheim Hines, Kyren Williams, Caleb Huntley

Non-Elite Injury Stashes

We are all heartbroken when players we have been hoping turn into something great get hurt before it’s their time to shine. It can feel like we were robbed of a breakout, even though we were right on the player when we picked them up or drafted them. At this late in the season though, non-elite injured players can not go right back into your lineup. Even the elite guys, like Ja’Marr Chase, Marquise Brown, and Derrick Henry last year were scary to start in their first week back in action, and usually take a couple weeks to be back at full strength. Holding a player like Herbert this long means he not only needs to show the same burst as before his injury, but also has a larger role than before he was hurt, which is unlikely. Similarly to a rookie who has yet to breakout, if you will not be able to fully trust a player until the last week of the playoffs, it is time to cut bait and move on. Keep in mind, you were able to make the playoffs with the roster that you have right now, so unless you had a few recent injuries, these players would only be a bonus on top of the respectable team that you already have. The risk of these players is just too great to use any time soon. It should be noted, that if you have an IR spot free, you can hang onto these players for the time being, but if they are activated, don’t cut a valuable bench piece in order to keep them on your team. 

TLDR: These types of players are clogging up a bench spot, and you likely have better options to use your IR slots with

Notable Examples: Khalil Herbert, Mecole Hardman, any fringe starter-type who is ruled out for the week in question. 

Bonus: Any Secondary Onesie Player Who Likely Won’t be Started, Any Capped Ceiling Vet Who Likely Won’t be Started by You or Your Potential Opponents

This is where knowing your league comes into play, as alluded to above. In the dog days of the regular season, I am generally staunchly against rostering multiple players at the onesie positions ( QB, TE, D/ST and Kickers, if your league is prehistoric enough to still use those), with the exception of satisfying bye week or injury concerns. With that said, the playoffs are an entirely different beast. As highlighted above, there are several types of players you can safely cut bait with at this time of year, and it can be more than viable to roster multiple players at the onesie positions. After all, blocking opponents can be just as critical as helping your own team. With that said, it can be case by case, and there is a certain level of judgement that can be used. If your QB1 is Jalen Hurts, and all other remaining teams are set at QB, rostering a QB2 becomes unnecessary. If you like how your defense matches up for the next 3 weeks, and the same can be said about your opponents ( or if there are plenty of viable options sitting on the wire, negating the need to stash other ones), there is no need to rush to add a 2nd defense. If proven flex plays with modest ceilings such as Latavius Murray don’t have a clear path to being started, drop him in favour of someone with more upside. At the end of the day, you know your league better than I do, just realize that roster construction strategies are different at this time of year.

In conclusion, we are hopeful this article will prove to be helpful for those who are still vying for titles. Best of luck to all!