Week 1 Top Plays and Fades

Photo from newyorkjets.com

Ladies and Gentlemen, the wait is finally over! After all the preparation we did this offseason, and all the speculation and hype for every situation we’ve analyzed, we will finally get a few answers this week. Week 1 has historically been a week of overreactions. It is important to look at how players are used, but not overreact. For example, if Michael Carter gets the carries for the Jets first drive, don’t assume Breece Hall will be buried behind Carter all season. If Sammy Watkins gets 8 targets, don’t label him as the Davante Adams replacement and plug him into your lineup every week.

Here at Go For Two, we’ve split players into a few different categories. We’ll give you a Go For Two option, a field goal play, and a turnover on downs. The Go For Two option is a player that is rostered in very few leagues, but has the potential to blow up and win you the week. This is a player that you start and bask in the glory when they go off. The field goal option is a player that is a borderline start, but we are giving you confidence this week. Start them and enjoy the points that you collect. The turnover on downs player is a highly rostered player who is set up to disappoint you. Do what you can to avoid a turnover on downs.

And remember, always Go For Two 

Field Goal Play

Elijah Moore, WR (NYJ) – Moore is set up to have a huge week to start the year. The elite Joe Flacco will be starting in place of the injured Zach Wilson. In one game with Flacco last year, Moore went off for 8 receptions, 141 yards and a touchdown. The Jets also will likely be trailing the Ravens this week, meaning a favourable game script for Moore. The rookie Garrett Wilson will likely challenge Moore for targets throughout the year, but the Jets will start him slowly this week, meaning Moore will soak up targets, and has the talent to do a lot with them. Start him with confidence, and don’t be surprised when he gets you 70+ yards and a touchdown. – Derek

Nico Collins, WR (HOU) – Nico Collins had a lackluster 2021 season only mustering 33 receptions for 446 reception yards and one touchdown.  The Texans are ready for Collins to take a leap in production this year creating a great tandem with veteran Brandin Cooks.  Houston will likely be trailing this game against division rival Indianapolis opening up an opportunity for Davis Mills to throw the ball early and often.  I expect Collins to produce 6 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.  – Jon 

David Njoku, TE (CLE) – With the departure of Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper, Njoku may finally be able to deliver the fantasy season owners have always wanted. I expect Njoku to be the number two target in a TE friendly offense in Cleveland. If Cleveland opts to involve TE’s at similar rates to last year, more than 60 targets are up for grabs. While Njoku may not necessarily pop Week 1, he’s an upside play for those managers that find him available as a streamer or don’t have a bonafide TE1 option.- Ermando

Marquise Brown, WR (ARI)- With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first 6 games, Rondale Moore having already been ruled out for Sunday, and Zach Ertz figuring to be limited if he is even active, Hollywood’s target competition is looking very underwhelming at the moment. Often typecast as a one-trick pony who is too volatile to be trusted, Brown silenced a lot of his doubters last year, diversifying his route tree and becoming a more consistent producer before Lamar Jackson went down with an injury. It also does not hurt that he already has built-in chemistry with his new quarterback in Kyler Murray, dating back to their days at Oklahoma. To add to his case, Sunday’s matchup against Kansas City figures to be a fast-paced shootout, only increasing the likelihood of scoring a touchdown and racking up receptions and yards to go along with it. Fire up Brown with confidence. – Ryan

Turnover on Downs

Amari Cooper, WR (CLE) – The Baker Mayfield revenge game has a lot of exciting real life storylines, but very few things to look forward to in the fantasy world. This game has the second lowest over/under of the week, meaning very few fireworks are expected. The Browns will move the ball by running it down the throat of the Panthers with Chubb and Hunt, and will spread the ball out to the receivers. Cooper will not be able to provide you a good week on volume alone, so starting him is a gamble on him scoring a touchdown. – Derek

Josh Jacobs, RB (LV) – Josh Jacobs has seen a significant decline in production each year since the 2019 season.  He averaged only 58.1 rushing yards per game and 23.2 receiving yards per game, even after he was hyped up all offseason last year about how Jacobs has “improved as a receiver”.  Even after the raiders selected Zamir White in the fourth round of this year’s draft, Jacobs is still capable of producing RB2 fantasy production, but don’t count on that production in the first game of the season against the Chargers.  Joey Bosa and newly acquired edge rusher for the Chargers, Khalil Mack will be making Jacobs’ job increasingly difficult in a game the Raiders will be relying on Derek Carr and Davante Adams’ passing attack.  Leave Jacobs on the bench this week. – Jon

Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL)- Zeke has become one of the more polarizing players in all of fantasy over the last few years, but even his biggest supporters would admit that he isn’t exactly set up the greatest this week. Thanks to a ferocious defensive front, teams have either quickly abandoned the running game against Tampa early on after repeatedly getting stuffed, or in some cases have ignored the running game entirely. Given his sharp decline in ability, I am not willing to bet that Zeke will be the exception to the rule against this stout run defense. In fact, Tony Pollard matches up better against this defense, given that he is the far more explosive player and is better in open space. You do not have to look very far for evidence against Zeke, as just last year against Tampa, he posted atrocious stat lines of 11-33-0 on the ground, and 2-6-0 through the air. Of course, you do not want to succumb to confirmation bias, but it is tough to argue against the fact that he is in a very tough spot this week. The one thing going for Elliott, however, is this could very well be a high scoring game ,which theoretically raises his touchdown upside. That said, he will likely need to hit paydirt to payoff in fantasy this week, as concerns regarding both efficiency and volume are plentiful. Personally, I would rank Zeke around the RB 2 /3 borderline for this week, which is less than ideal given that you probably spent a 3rd or 4th round pick to obtain him. – Ryan  

Go For Two Option

Randal Cobb, WR (GB) – Old man Cobb is currently sitting on your waiver wire, just patiently waiting to be picked up and thrown into your starting lineup. With the departure of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard’s injury, the Packers are in desperate need for players who can reliably catch the football. The Packers wide receiver room is currently composed of a few rookies and the perpetually unreliable Sammy Watkins. Aaron Rodgers has historically favoured throwing the ball to players he has chemistry with, and the only receiver Rodgers knows well is Cobb. In a game that could see plenty of touchdowns, start Cobb and laugh at your opponent when he scores a touchdown and gets over 50 yards