Fantasy Football My Guys

Photo by Shawn Hubbard of Baltimore Ravens Photos

Every year, every fantasy player needs to make decisions on players and put their stamp on them. They’re the players that you need to go into the draft with a plan on how to get them onto your team. They’re the players that you brag about for years when you’re right about their breakout, and are willing to admit when you’re wrong about them. I’ll stand proudly and say I had Patrick Mahomes in his breakout year, Tee Higgins through his rookie year, and Jonathan Taylor last year. I’ll also admit to being all in on Kerryon Johnson back in the day and Trey Sermon last year. In fantasy football though, it’s no guts, no glory, so here are the players I’m putting my name on this year, and I’m sure I’ll nail every one of them this year.

Rashod Bateman – ADP of 77.6 on Sleeper

My love for Bateman this year is less about the player, and more about his situation. One thing we’ve learned for certain in fantasy is that there is always great fantasy value to be had in condensed target trees. Minnesota has always been a great example of this, with two great fantasy wide receivers, be it Diggs, Theilen, or Jefferson, with a third target way down the list. Losing Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins in the offseason means that the situation will be similar in Baltimore this year. Mark Andrews will remain the number one option in the receiving game, with Bateman being the number two, but there are no established receivers behind those two. A healthy Lamar Jackson and JK Dobbins should make the Baltimore offense far more effective than they were last year, meaning more scoring opportunities for the receivers as well. 

Bateman admittedly did not have a great rookie season, with only one game above 100 yards, and one touchdown, but he was injured for training camp and the first five weeks of the year, and had to play behind Brown on a low volume passing offense. This year, he will be up to speed on the offense, will have better chemistry with Lamar, and will see lots of volume. I don’t expect Bateman to become a WR1 by any means, but I don’t see a world where he can bust either. With his ADP in the middle of the 7th round right now, I’ll happily take him anywhere and everywhere I can.

Brandin Cooks – ADP of 63.0 on Sleeper

What does this man need to do to get some respect? Cooks shows up every year, plays great, gets traded in the offseason, has to learn a new system, and then plays great again. Every year that he played a full season, he had at least 1000 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, on a terrible Houston team with unknown rookie QB Davis Mills, he did it again, with 1037 receiving yards and 6 TDs. That was good enough to finish as the WR 20 on the year. Now we go into year two of Mills under center who should continue to progress as a passer. The Texans will still be terrible though, which will lead to lots of positive game scripts for Cooks to exploit. Cooks seems locked in to be in the WR 15 – 20 range, but is currently being drafted as a WR3. If I go RB heavy at the start of my draft, landing Cooks as my WR2 in the sixth round will make me feel like it’s Christmas morning. 

Trey Lance – ADP of 102.8 on Sleeper

Death, Taxes, and getting sucked in on the 49ers offseason hype train; some things are just guaranteed. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is such a good offensive designer, that whenever a player looks like they can have a lead role, and their draft price is reasonable, I’m all in. Last year I (as well as the entire fantasy community) was wrong on Trey Sermon getting the lead role in the backfield, but instead Elijah Mitchell came out of nowhere and stole the show. There is no danger of that happening this year with Trey Lance, who has been handed the starting quarterback role and will be given everything possible to succeed after the organization invested so heavily in him. 

In the two games that Lance started for San Fran last year, he had 18 rushing attempts for 120 yards. That 60 rushing yards per game is equivalent to a pocket passing quarterback passing for an extra 150 yards per game! That is such a valuable baseline of production that is almost impossible to replicate for guys like Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr, who are being drafted around Lance. If Lance can even be an average passing quarterback, his production could look similar to that of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, who are going 50 picks earlier. 

The moral of the story is, you play fantasy football to win it all, and that means looking for upside. Lance is the only quarterback going this late that has top 5 potential, and you need to unearth diamonds like him if you want to win a championship. If it turns out that he’s ineffective as a passer and the 49ers offense is a bust, you can drop him and pick up a guy from the waiver wire who will be almost as effective as the other guys being drafted near Lance. 

A Go For Two Option: Brian Robinson – ADP of 186.7 on Sleeper

Washington’s backfield is a complete mess, with the coaching staff losing faith in Antonio Gibson due to his fumbling issues, and JD McKissic being limited to passing down work. Enter rookie Brian Robinson. Keep an eye on Robinson’s ADP as you get closer to your draft, but if he stays in the last round or two of your draft, he’s a perfect target. If he can prove to the coaches that he is dependable, he could quickly become the lead back Commanders, and will certainly have the valuable red zone work. The passing down work will likely remain with Gibson and McKissic throughout the season, but I could see Robinson becoming a dependable RB2/flex piece a few weeks into the season, which is a steal at this point in the draft.