The Most Difficult Players to Rank in Fantasy Football- 2022 Edition

The Most Difficult Players to Rank in Fantasy Football- 2022 Edition

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While kickoff is still approximately 2 months away,fantasy draft season is in full swing. With that in mind, the time is now to start doing your homework so that you can crush your upcoming drafts. Of course, some of us degenerates who shall not be named have already been drafting for months. If you ask anyone who assembles rankings, they would all reach a similar conclusion – some players are just far more difficult than others to rank relative to their peers. While many players will be ranked within the same range regardless of which source you refer to, there are others with an extremely wide range of outcomes, and thus will be all over the map as far as rankings are concerned. While drafting is anything but an exact science, and there is so much that can happen after the draft that can have a major impact on the outcome of your league ( aside from best ball, of course), it represents your first opportunity to gain an edge over your leaguemates. If your process is correct and you can take in useful information appropriately, your chances of success will be enhanced.

In the points below, I will highlight players for the 2022 fantasy season who I believe are the most difficult to rank as things currently stand . Each of these players have a very wide range of outcomes this year, and figure to be major deciders of leagues for the upcoming season, one way or another. If these players perform anywhere near their ceiling, they will likely be among the most common players on championship teams. Under more pessimistic scenarios, they will likely be costing fantasy managers a fair amount of money. 

The purpose of this writing is to offer differing perspectives towards some of the more polarizing players in fantasy football. Ideally, the reader can take this information however they will, and will generate their individual opinions on said players. Perhaps taking a bold stance or two will help make your wallet a little heavier come January.

Without further ado, here are the most difficult players to rank in fantasy football this year. 

( Note: the bulk of my references to ADP/Cost/Price are loosely in reference to the best ball-heavy sites such as Underdog, Drafters and FFPC. We do not have enough reliable data on home league ADP’s as of this writing in my opinion, since most of those leagues conduct their drafts in late August or early September)

Alvin Kamara

The Case For:

His track record speaks for itself at this point. Kamara has been a fixture atop fantasy leaderboards since day 1 essentially, thanks to his combination of elite talent and usage. Even in what was universally considered his worst season as a professional in 2021, he still finished as  the RB5 in terms of points per game in half-PPR formats. Also, with fears of an upcoming suspension,  Kamara is the cheapest he has been since his rookie season with a 3rd round ADP. In the event that he avoids suspension, or if his suspension is on the low end of estimations, fantasy managers could be drafting themselves a bonafide RB1 at a reduced rate.

The Case Against:

As alluded to above, Kamara could potentially be facing a suspension in the wake of charges stemming from an incident in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl weekend. Obviously, this is a situation to monitor. On the pessimistic side of things, there is risk that he will be facing a lengthy suspension, which would obviously tank his fantasy value. I had also mentioned that he was coming off the worst season of his career. Both his yards per carry ( 3.7) and receptions per game ( 3.6) marks were the lowest of his career, and given that he just turned 27 ( no spring chicken for a running back), there is at least somewhat of a chance that we will never see the truly elite version of Kamara that we all know and love. Once you also factor in that Drew Brees, Sean Payton and Terron Armstead have departed the organization, there is at least some level of systematic risk in investing in Saints skill position players.

My Current Verdict:

Personally, I’m buying the dip at his current reduced cost. As Drew Davenport highlighted in this thread, things may not be as bleak as they once appeared as far as a potential suspension is concerned. Moreover, he does not necessarily need to be the Kamara of old to payoff at his ADP- the risks are largely baked in already. I would go as far as saying that he has the highest ceiling of any player currently being drafted in the 3rd round, especially if the Saints unleash Winston and he is able to haul in 80 receptions or so, like we know he is capable of doing. Obviously, his pending legal situation has the potential to dramatically swing his ADP one way or another, but at current cost, I’m in.

Allen Robinson

The Case For:

Allen Robinson has rather famously been able to put up WR1 numbers over the course of his career in spite of both lackluster quarterback play and poor offensive environments. Now that he is with the Rams, no one would argue against the fact that this is by far the best situation of his career. While Cooper Kupp will enter the season as the Rams unquestioned number 1 receiver, ARob will be in prime position to snatch the OBJ/Robert Woods role of old- the number 2 receiver in a high-volume, high-efficiency offense with heavy involvement in the redzone. If that is the case, and if he still has something left in the tank, the Penn State product is in position to pay off at his 5th round ADP and put his fantasy managers in a very good spot.

The Case Against:

The elephant in the room here is the fact that Robinson is coming off of easily the worst season of his career. He posted an extremely underwhelming 38-410-1 statline in 12 games, and was very clearly outplayed by Darnell Mooney in a broken Bears offense. In fantasy, he was arguably the biggest bust of the year given his 3rd round ADP. He didn’t record more than 9.4 half-PPR points in a single game, and was largely droppable in season-long formats by midseason. So the question becomes, did he perform so poorly last year because he had packed it in as a disgruntled member of a team he was no longer interested in playing for, or has he simply lost a step?  Personally, I think the truth lies somewhere in between. If you’re a believer in the latter, you likely won’t have any exposure to him at his current cost.  He is not getting any younger, and as a receiver who has relied heavily on his plus athleticism over the course of his career, we may never see the Robinson of old .

My Current Verdict:

Personally, I am rather neutral on him at his current price. I think his combination of pros and cons are accurately taken into consideration at cost, and I can very much understand both sides of the argument.  While I currently prefer the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman, and George Kittle within that range, I occasionally do find myself smashing the ‘draft” button on Robinson around the 4 / 5 turn, especially if I believe I can select Matthew Stafford 4 or 5 rounds later to complete the stack. At the end of the day, he is the type of player who I do not want to miss out on entirely this year, when you consider the optimistic side of his range of outcomes.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

The Case For:

Going from the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger to Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback is like going from a Big Mac for dinner one night, to a vintage Surf and Turf meal the next. JuJu is also joining a Chiefs offense with 340 vacated targets from last year, good enough for second most in the NFL as of this writing. His main competition for targets at the wide receiver position includes 2nd round rookie Skyy Moore, volatile fly route specialist Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the perennially disappointing Mecole Hardman. Not to mention, he appeared to be on a genuine superstar trajectory after his first two years in the league before a variety of factors resulted in a decline in production. At just 25 years of age, perhaps Kansas City is the perfect spot for him to rediscover his early-career form, all things considered. 

The Case Against: 

As alluded to above, his production has tanked over the last 3 years, and perhaps it is not a fluke that his decline has also coincided with the departure of Antonio Brown from the Steelers organization. JuJu has pathetically averaged less than 9 yards per reception in each of the last 2 years. Perhaps that was largely a function of playing in an uncreative offense with a noodle-armed quarterback, but maybe he was never truly as good as we once thought. Given the wide open nature of the competition for targets behind Travis Kelce, there is a non-zero chance that JuJu finds himself clearly behind one or more of the 3 names mentioned above. Perhaps more likely, there is also an entirely plausible scenario in which Kelce is the only consistently productive pass catcher in this offense, with the others canceling each other out and alternating usable fantasy weeks. Current prices of the Kansas City wideouts suggest JuJu is a shoo-in for the WR1 role in this offense, although that is not a lock in reality. When you consider he is playing on a relatively cheap one-year contract, the Chiefs organization has zero allegiance to him. Any large role he may have will need to be earned, not force-fed.

My Current Verdict:

Much like with Robinson, I am relatively neutral on JuJu at cost, perhaps very slightly below market. I also believe his wide range of outcomes are appropriately considered with his current price. Although drafting him certainly comes with a meaningful opportunity cost, the prospect of potentially chasing a mid-career redemption story in a young player with a history of production certainly has its merits. In addition, stacking him with Patrick Mahomes around the 4 / 5 turn is certainly a tasty proposition.

Diontae Johnson:

The Case For:

Johnson has beaten his ADP in each of the last 2 years, overcoming issues with drops and poor quarterback play to emerge as a fringe WR1/elite WR2 for fantasy purposes. With Big Ben no longer around, things can only go up, right? Not to mention , Chase Claypool took a step back last year, and remains the only other proven receiver on the roster anyway, so Johnson could again find himself in position to be a legitimate target hog, and once again pay off at his drafted price.

The Case Against:

Lets just say there are a number of environmental factors that could potentially work against him this year. With Ben no longer around, there is a genuine possibility the Steelers change the composition of their offense. That could mean a greater emphasis on the running game,  more downfield targets ( which would theoretically be good news for Claypool and George Pickens), or perhaps a combination of the two. Remember, a big reason why Diontae was such a valuable asset in fantasy is because Ben would relentlessly target him with passes of the shorter variety,largely as an extension of the running game, giving him one of the highest weekly floors in all of fantasy. Each of their 2 new quarterbacks are far more mobile than Roethlisberger, so perhaps some of Diontae’s old targets will instead be allocated towards QB scrambles. There is also a non-zero chance Mitch Trubisky/ Kenny Pickett develops more chemistry with Claypool than Diontae( or Pickens in a less likely scenario), adding one more potential obstacle for the 4th year wideout. There are also numerous reports suggesting the Steelers are hesitant to sign him long-term beyond his rookie contract which expires after 2022, perhaps reinforcing that they may not plan on featuring him as much this year, and instead paving the way for their aforementioned younger receivers.

My Current Verdict:

As things currently stand, I am a little bit below market on Diontae Johnson, largely due to the reasons highlighted in the Case Against section. However, it is tough to bet against a player with his history of production, and I am fully aware that I could end up being dead wrong with my stance on him. I do not want to miss out on him entirely, so I am still occasionally sprinkling him onto my best ball rosters. With that said, at his current price, I would rather be drafting the likes of Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, and Jaylen Waddle over Johnson. Relative to ADP, I would also rather spend a 9th round pick on Chase Claypool than a 4th round pick on Diontae.

Quick Hits:

Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers is coming off back-to-back to back MVP seasons, and was a surefire fantasy QB1 at that. However, he is now entering his age 39 season, and Davante Adams is no longer in the picture. The Packers offseason approach may also foreshadow a greater emphasis on the running game compared to previous years.

Miles Sanders- Sanders is a naturally talented runner,and remains the favourite to lead the Eagles in touches. He somehow scored zero touchdowns in 2021 despite a reasonably prominent role when healthy , so positive regression figures to be in store, at least to a certain degree. The arrow on the Eagles offense is also generally pointing upward. However, he figures to share/lose out on high-value touches to Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and even Jalen Hurts, which could potentially cap his ceiling in fantasy.

Gabriel Davis- Seems as if everyone and their dog has an opinion on Davis’ fantasy outlook this year, so I feel obligated to acknowledge him here. The role of the number 2 option in this high-flying Buffalo passing attack is up for grabs, and Davis has been a productive player whenever he has seen a boost in playing time. However, he may not be as good of a player as his truthers suggest, and he is not necessarily a lock for the number 2 role. Much like with Kansas City, there is at least somewhat of a chance that there is only one consistently productive receiver in this offense, with the others largely cannibalizing each others fantasy values. His ADP (4th round) is creeping up to the point where I would prefer to select alternative options. At that price, I am only interested in taking him if I am completing a stack with Stefon Diggs and/or Josh Allen. If his ADP falls back into the round 5 or 6 range, I would definitely be more interested.