Fantasy Football – Early Players to Avoid

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While we’re still a few months away from the NFL season kicking off, it is safe to say that we can start to make some more serious looks into the fantasy outlook for players and teams. This is the perfect time of year to identify situations that you want to target and get a nice head start on your leaguemates. Unfortunately, this is also a time of year when a lot of players’ value gets hyped up way too far, and they’re bound to disappoint. This happened last year with the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Trey Sermon, and Laviska Shenault among many others. 

I find it helpful in the draft season to identify a bunch of players that I’m avoiding, so that I’m not tempted to take them if my team needs help at a certain position, or if they start to slip by a few picks. That being said, this list is an ever changing thing, as draft positions change every day. Most, if not all of the players on this list are there because of the draft cost, and not because it is impossible for them to succeed. If a player like Najee Harris slips into the back of the second round, I’d still be taking him, despite being “out” on him in my pre-draft analysis.

With all that in mind, here is a list of players I’m avoiding at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). The ADP has been taken from Underdog for Bestball Leagues. 

Najee Harris – ADP of 9.2 (RB5)

I’ve written about my distaste for Harris before in the Early Offseason Winners and Losers article. The fantasy community has yet to take my advice on Harris though, and he remains a top 5 drafted running back. Last year, Najee finished as the RB4 in Half PPR scoring on the back of the most touches in the league, with 307 rush attempts and 94 targets. Thanks to Pittsburgh’s poor O-line and a lack of explosion, Najee averaged a paltry 3.91 yards per carry, which is far below any of the other elite fantasy backs.

Going into this year, Pittsburgh will have a new man under center now that Big Ben has retired. Whoever gets the nod at quarterback, whether it’s Mitch Turbisky, Kenny Pickett, or some combination of the two, they will be more mobile than Big Ben, and will be throwing to Najee far less often. If Najee’s targets drop to 70, or even 60, he will drastically underperform at his draft cost. Add to it that he has said he will be taking more plays off this year, and Najee is bound to disappoint. I still expect him to have well over 250 rushing attempts, and 70 targets, but I’d far rather draft Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, or even Aaron Jones on my team than Najee Harris.

Allen Robinson – ADP of 48 (WR22)

Robinson had been a mainstay on the WR1 charts forever it seemed. He finished 10th in 2019, 11th in 2020 before falling all the way down to WR89 last year. For anyone that had him on their team, I don’t need to remind you just how bad he was. He played last year on the franchise tag, and many people attributed his complete disappearance to him giving up on the Bears. While I agree that is probably true, I also think that Robinson has lost a step. The problem is, it’s difficult to judge if a player is not able to do things like create separation because they have declined in ability , or because they have quit on the team. Luckily for us, I don’t think it matters a whole lot which story is true. 

Robinson is no longer the unquestioned leader in the receiver room, with Cooper Kupp clearly leading the way for the Rams. Robinson has always needed 150+ targets to get into the high-end wide receiver discussion. The Rams number 2 receiver though have historically been much less than that. Odell Beckham Jr. on the Rams was on pace for 96 targets while he was on the team, and even Robert Woods never exceeded 130 targets on the year. Receivers changing teams has also historically needed an adjustment period, likely leading to fewer big games in the first part of the season. All in all, I think Robinson is being drafted at his ceiling right now, and will more likely finish as a low-end WR3 or a WR4. At that draft price I’d prefer to take Rashod Bateman, Brandin Cooks, or Juju Smith-Schuster. 

Ezekiel Elliott – ADP of 38.1 (RB18)

Do you remember when Zeke burst onto the NFL scene as a rookie and rushed for over 1600 yards? Of course you do. Do you then remember him dominating the NFL year after year behind that elite Cowboys offensive line? Everyone remembers that right? The fact is, the memory of Zeke’s glory days is the only reason anyone wants Elliott on their fantasy team. The fact is, Zeke was terrible last year outside of a few weeks, and has been underperforming for multiple years now. 

Last year, Elliott finished as the RB6( RB13 in points per game) in Half PPR scoring, but did that on the back of 10 touchdowns. He did that for a Cowboys team that scored the most amount of points in the league. If he had rushed for only 6 TD’s, like he did in 2020, he would have finished as the RB14. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat, so how did he do outside of the touchdowns? He ran for only 4.2 yards per attempt (down from 4.7 before last year), averaged the fewest yards per route run of his career, forced the fewest missed tackles of his career (19), and ran for the fewest first downs of his career (55). When you watch Tony Pollard carry the ball behind the same O-line, it is obvious that Zeke has lost a step.  It is also worth noting that he did not have a single blowup performance after week 5, which was highly problematic given his 1st Round ADP in 2021. A declining back who got by in fantasy largely because of touchdowns and simply playing every week and compiling rather than actually delivering week-winning performances does not sound overly appealing at his current price. 

If Zeke’s efficiency as a rusher continues to erode, and the Cowboys offense without Cooper regresses to closer to league average, Zeke will be a huge disappointment in fantasy. The only hope for him to return value at his current cost is if he continues to touch the ball 15+ times per game and the touchdowns remain high. Overall, I believe that Zeke is being drafted near his ceiling, and his floor is an RB4. I would rather draft a WR in the third round like Courtland Sutton, or DJ Moore, and then grabbing a guy like Breece Hall to fill my RB slot a round later. 

Quick hits:

Michael Thomas – ADP of 77.3 (WR 38) He’s no longer the only receiver in town, Brees has long since retired, and he hasn’t been on a football field for a year and a half. Until he proves he’s healthy, he’s off my draft board. 

Kyle Pitts – ADP of 32 (TE3) Pitts will be a great tight end this year, and I like him at TE3, but would much rather him at the end of the 4th than the middle of the 3rd. Take Andrews in the 2nd if you want the positional advantage.

Deebo Samuel – ADP of 18.8 (WR8) He’s demanded fewer carries, so will Trey Lance be able to supply him with enough volume to remain an elite receiver?