Fantasy Impact of the First Round of the NFL Draft- Instant Analysis

Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Draft differs from that of the NHL and the MLB, in the sense that there are no developmental leagues in football, meaning these rookies are inserted onto the active roster from day 1, and are often expected to contribute meaningfully right from the start. As the likes of Jamarr Chase and Najee Harris showed us just last season , it is never too early in your career to put up big numbers, and thus, emerge as a fantasy star. Below, you will find my instant analysis of every fantasy-relevant draft selection in Round 1, in terms of how the fantasy landscape is affected. 

(Unless otherwise noted, this article will be written from a primarily redraft perspective, as far as fantasy is concerned.)

Falcons Select Drake London 8th Overall

The Falcons probably had the league’s worst receiving corps heading into today, so while this team had several needs at other positions, this selection was far from a surprise. For what it’s worth, I had mocked London to Atlanta in all three installments. From a fantasy perspective, this is definitely one of the best possible landing spots for the USC product. Much like Devonta Smith last year, London is in prime position to emerge as his team’s unquestioned number 1 wideout from the get-go, especially given the lack of competition. There is risk that the Falcons offense is completely terrible and not worth investing in, but he profiles as an Upside WR3 in 2022 given his talent/opportunity combo, and could form a lethal pass-catching duo with ultra-talented sophomore Kyle Pitts.

Kyle Pitts remains a locked-in TE1 and stands to benefit from more favourable coverage schemes as a result of this selection. Marcus Mariota remains a tough sell QB2 option given his previous deficiencies as a passer, though he does admittedly offer some rushing juice. Meanwhile, in case it wasn’t clear enough before, the other Falcons receivers ( namely Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd) are largely off the fantasy radar, and profile as uninspiring late-round dart throws at the absolute best.

Jets Select Garrett Wilson 10th Overall

Given their reported interest in Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, and D.K Metcalf, it is not surprising to see the Jets invest this heavily in a receiver. There are no excuses for Zach Wilson anymore. While he probably still shouldn’t be selected in single-QB formats,  QB Wilson is certainly an intriguing prospect in superflex and best ball formats, and it would not be a surprise if he emerged as a viable waiver-wire pickup in those aforementioned single-QB formats.Meanwhile, WR Wilson will likely be valued as a WR4 in fantasy drafts this summer, with enough upside to smash his ADP. There are other mouths to feed in this offense, and Zach Wilson struggled big time last season, meaning his floor may not be the most secure. However. The possibility of QB Wilson breaking out this year, and the potential of WR Wilson being a complete baller make him entirely worth the risk at his presumed cheaper cost.

I remain all-in on Elijah Moore for 2022- this selection hurts the likes of Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios way more. Those two are tough to label as anything more than late-round picks at this point.The latter is probably off the fantasy radar altogether unless someone ahead of him gets hurt. 

Saints Select Chris Olave 11th Overall

The Saints have themselves a rather lethal duo of Ohio State alumni at the wide receiver position. While they don’t have as much firepower as they did during the Drew Brees days, this is a solid landing spot for Olave nonetheless. With Michael Thomas presumably returning from injury, Olave figures to be New Orleans’ number 2 wideout in 2022, which is enough to put him on the WR 4 / 5 radar with obvious room for growth. Many consider him to be the most NFL-ready receiver in this class given how polished he is as a route-runner, which certainly does not hurt matters.

Lions Select Jameson Williams 12th Overall

My instant reaction is that Williams will be better in real-life than in fantasy, at least in 2022. 

I feel like he is far more desirable in dynasty compared to redraft, since I am still a firm believer that his talent will eventually win out. The Alabama product is an elite deep threat, and a dynamic playmaker who’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and his speed stands to benefit the likes of Amon-Ra St.Brown, TJ Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift in the short/intermediate passing game. However, his value may not always appear on the box score, given that he is joining a suddenly-crowded passing offense with serious questions regarding quarterback play, thus making him a dicey fantasy prospect for 2022. It is also worth noting that he tore his ACL during the National Championship, meaning he is far from a lock to play week 1. 

Meanwhile, the other Lions pass-catchers may need to be downgraded a tad, but not necessarily dramatically. Remember, the likelihood of them adding another receiver of relevance was largely baked into their prices before, so an overcorrection is not necessary. If I had to pick one guy on this team who is hurt by this the most, it would have to be DJ Chark, given that his skillset overlaps the most with Willams amongst incumbent Lions wideouts. He is still worthy of being selected later in drafts, however. 

Commanders Select Jahan Dotson 16th Overall

While Dotson may have been a bit of a reach at 16, the Commanders undoubtedly needed to surround Carson Wentz with more talent. While it may not be the best landing spot in the world for receivers, The Penn State product has a legit chance of winning the slot role out of training camp ( or a starting role in some capacity) , and fantasy relevance is certainly not out of the question. Terry McLaurin remains an upside WR2, while Dotson figures to slot into the WR 5 / 6 tier, at least on draft day. Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown have become less-appealing as late-round targets, but still figure to be drafted in deeper/more competitive formats. 

Titans Select Treylon Burks 18th Overall

The Titans shockingly dealt away AJ Brown, and are attempting to replace him with the closest stylistic comparable this draft has to offer. Bold strategy, Cotton. Being real, this is a pretty solid landing spot for the Arkansas product. While investing in pass-catchers in the extremely run-heavy Titans offense has induced several headaches in recent years,  we can at least take comfort in the fact that Burks has very limited competition at the wide receiver position. While he is still relatively raw as a route-runner, his combination of natural talent and opportunity does make him an interesting fantasy asset, as he figures to have upside WR 3/4 appeal in fantasy drafts. No one should be surprised if he leads this team in receiving not only in 2022, but for years to come. 

Steelers Select Kenny Pickett 20th Overall

A lot was made about the Steelers reported infatuation with Malik Willis, but in a minor surprise, it is the Pittsburgh alumni who will try to be the heir apparent to Big Ben. Given that he is far from perfect as a prospect and is by no means a lock to start the bulk of the games in 2022, Pickett is largely off the redraft radar for the time being- he is a dynasty-only asset as things currently stand. The Steelers skill-position players remain relatively unaffected by this for the time being.