Players That Will Be Impacted Most at the Draft

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Players That Will Be Impacted Most at the Draft

We do it every year; we make bold proclamations of who won the NFL offseason as soon as the snow starts to melt and we don’t even wait for the draft to happen. I’m guilty of it myself, having written a fantasy football winners and losers article before the calendar turned to April (I did caveat the article by saying it was early and we need to wait for the draft at least). Often times , we go into the draft and look who teams drafted, and where those players will fit. Something that is equally important though, is to look at what teams did not invest in. If you look at the moves that teams make, it often shows who they value. For example teams that draft offensive linemen early, and leave their running back room as is are giving their RB’s a vote of confidence.

With that in mind, here is a list of players we think could be impacted the most by the draft. These players could all come out of the draft as major winners or major losers, but likely won’t be in the headlines as they aren’t the ones with their names being called on draft night.

Michael Carter

I’ll start by saying that I am a big Michael Carter fan. He passed the eye test for me last year, and often produced on a terrible Jets team. He averaged almost half a yard per carry better than teammate Ty Johnson and showed much more burst than an aging Tevin Coleman. If the Jets decide to invest in the O-line and defense, Carter would leave the draft as one of the biggest winners. I would expect him to take over as the main back for a Jets offense that should be much better than last year.

On the flip side, the Jets have a number of early picks in which they can use to plug holes in the roster. They’re a big market team that has already been linked to several big names, and to keep the fans interested, I could easily see them reaching for a bigger name running back prospect such as Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker III. The offense could stand to add more gamebreakers anyway. If any running back heads to the Big Apple in the first three rounds, it could spell disaster for Carter’s fantasy value.- Derek

Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Sun God won a lot of people championships last year, and it won’t be forgotten come fantasy draft season. For those of you who didn’t have St. Brown on your team, I’ll refresh you on how he did. He truly broke out, with 5 finishes inside the top 10 WR’s in the last 6 weeks, including a No. 2 overall finish in championship Week 17. Going into year two, it can only mean good things for St. Brown, right? Jared Goff has maintained lots of good fantasy options before, St. Brown can slot right in as the next Cooper Kupp, right?

If Detroit decides to invest their first round picks in the defense, the answer to these questions could be yes. That being said, I would expect the Lions to take a WR in the first, or at least early on Day 2. If that is the case, it would be a hit to St. Brown’s value. The Lions will remain a run-first team with major concerns regarding passing efficiency, and the extra target competition from newly brought in DJ Chark, and a flashy new rookie could push St. Brown’s value down from a WR2 to a questionable flex player.-Derek 

Devonta Smith

Smith had a very up-and-down rookie season, at least from a fantasy perspective. He had just as many weeks inside the top 24 wide receivers (5) as he did outside the top 60. The good weeks and bad weeks were all intertwined, meaning it was impossible to know when to start him. He’s supremely talented and has the draft capital to have a breakout season this year, and it would surprise no one. The Eagles will remain a run-first team, and Jalen Hurts will remain a low-volume passing quarterback. If the Eagles invest heavily in new weapons for Hurts, Smith’s target share could see a massive hit, leading to further inconsistencies. In a world where the Eagles leave Day 2 without a new receiving weapon though, I’ll be investing heavily in the talent that is Devonta Smith. -Derek

J.K Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins is a player that everyone has always been very high on, and for great reason. Drafted in the second round to the run-heavy Ravens, he broke out in the second half of 2020 with 50+ yards and a touchdown in every week from week 10 on. Expectations were sky-high last year before he went down with a torn ACL in the preseason. Without Dobbins last year, the run-heavy Ravens were a mess, having the old men Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray as their leading rushers. Neither player cracked the 600 yard mark on the season, and much of the rushing was left up to Lamar Jackson.

If Dobbins is the lead back, he could threaten for low-end RB1 numbers next year, with 12+ touchdowns not out of the realm of possibilities. The Ravens enjoy having a running back by committee though, and if they bring in a new young back, it could destroy Dobbins ceiling. If they bring in a bruiser to use in the red zone, Dobbins would be relegated to a low end RB2 that only rushes between the 20’s and doesn’t catch many passes. Unfortunately, we might never see that Dobbins ceiling we thought we’d get in 2020. -Derek 

Rondale Moore

No one in the entire NFL is better at catching a ball 1 yard from the line of scrimmage, running at lightning speed all over the field, avoiding tackles as he goes, just to get tackled 2 yards from the line of scrimmage. Rondale clearly has talent and speed, but was never given enough high value targets. For players with a minimum 30 targets, Rondale had the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) by a country mile, with 1.2 yards. For context, the second lowest aDOT was Braxton Berrios at 4.9 yards. This all means that Rondale is basically treated like a running back, and would need to get 15+ touches a game just to see some quality value.

All this could change though. Christian Kirk is now being overpaid on the Jags, and AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins are both another year older, meaning the Cardinals may be forced to give Rondale some high quality targets out of necessity. Arizona is widely expected to draft a receiver in the first or second rounds of the draft though. If that happens, Rondale will still see lots of targets, but they will likely still be very close to the line of scrimmage, and his ceiling will be tiny unless there’s a scheme change. -Derek 

Antonio Gibson

As I alluded to in my Lessons Learned article, Antonio Gibson, at least from a talent perspective, has become somewhat of a favourite within the fantasy community. And while I absolutely hate the idea of fading a player with his kind of ability, betting on players in his type of current situation does tend to be a losing strategy. It was bad enough for his outlook that they re-signed pass-catching specialist J.D McKissic, but more recently, there have been some  rumblings that an early selection on a running back cannot be ruled out. In fact, they’ve even gone as far as reportedly bringing in one Breece Hall for an-in person visit. If they were to select Hall, or really any running back within the first 2 or 3 rounds, that would truly be the worst-case scenario for Gibson’s fantasy value. Running backs who have a very limited role in the passing game tend to have a tougher path to relevance – we know that by now. But if he also starts sharing both early-down and goal-to-go carries with another back? Yuck .Not to mention the general concerns surrounding the state of the Commanders offense. Obviously, Washington will be a team to watch next weekend, especially for fantasy purposes. As painful as it may be to admit, Antonio Gibson:League-Winner might never be a thing. – Ryan

James Conner

Despite being a productive player for a large portion of his tenure in Pittsburgh, expectations were relatively modest heading into last season, with both durability and workload concerns being plentiful. Conner quickly put a lot of those concerns to rest, emerging as a league-winner of sorts and ultimately finishing as the RB6 in terms of points per game in 2021 (half-PPR). His receiving splits with and without Chase Edmonds were quite telling , and with the aforementioned Edmonds taking his talents to South Beach, Conner is surely in prime position to be a bellcow on a team that figures to score a lot of points, right? Not so fast. Like the Commanders, the Cardinals have been linked to a number of running backs who figure to be selected no later than Friday night. Goes without saying, Conner’s role appears to be very fragile at the moment, and any meaningful capital invested into the RB position by the Cardinals brass could potentially spell disaster for his fantasy value. I can easily see myself being below market on him this year regardless of what happens next weekend ( cough cough, RB Deadzone) , but it’s undeniable that the draft will have a major say in terms of where he will be selected in fantasy drafts. – Ryan

Gabriel Davis 

The Gabe Davis hype train this year is very real, and I am unashamedly sitting in the driver’s seat for it. Davis has had hype before, but has been unable to consistently produce, until the playoffs last year. Davis truly broke out in the playoffs last year with 242 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in just two games! Performances like that are impossible for a team to ignore, so the question will just be, how high is Davis’s ceiling?

Josh Allen is an elite quarterback in an electric pass-first offense, and he needs to have multiple weapons. Stefon Diggs is his number one, and isn’t going anywhere, so Davis’s production will depend on where the targets go after that. If Buffalo’s target tree remains condensed, much like Minnesota’s with only Jefferson and Thielen, Davis is talented enough to be a legit WR2. If Buffalo decides to heavily invest in a top WR prospect though, it could mean there are too many mouths to feed to see a true breakout happen. Davis will certainly have a good year, but with his skyrocketing draft cost, another WR in Buffalo could mean that Davis isn’t worth the price. -Derek

Quick Hits:

Marcus Mariota/Davis Mills/Mitch Trubisky- In traditional single-QB formats, these guys likely won’t be getting drafted anyway, and would profile as streaming options at best.They do offer some QB2/3 appeal in superflex and best ball leagues, however. With that said, if any of these QB’s respective teams spend a first round pick on a signal-caller, you can pretty much light your shares of these players on fire. – Ryan

Leonard Fournette/Miles Sanders/Cordarrelle Patterson/Devin Singletary- More examples of RB’s who’s 2022 outlooks can be impacted depending on what happens Draft Weekend.These guys weren’t given their own write-up either because it appears less likely their team will invest heavily in another running back, or because their value is somewhat shaky even if they happen to “survive” the draft. – Ryan

Corey Davis/Allen Lazard/Insert volatile WR4 types – There are a number of receivers league-wide who may offer WR4/flex-type appeal if their respective teams largely ignore the wide receiver position on draft day, but would see their values plummet if their teams do in fact invest meaningful capital into the position. Davis and Lazard are two of the more obvious examples of this concept. – Ryan