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What a crazy NFL offseason this has been so far. From the Seahawks granting Russell Wilson’s wish and trading him to the Broncos, or the blockbuster trades of two top wide receivers in Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, it’s been a roller coaster couple of weeks. With so many wild, gravity-shifting moves, almost every skill position player’s fantasy outlook has been affected. Now that things have started to settle down a bit, this is a good time to examine the fantasy landscape and see who is coming out of this as winners and losers. This article will highlight some key players who have stayed put but have seen their team change around them. Some other players who have changed teams will be examined as well. It needs to be said that this is still a very early list, and things are changing quickly, but it is important to start changing your mindset on players already. Don’t let your love or hate for a player from last season linger for too long if a team is signalling that a change in role is coming. 

Winners

Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz was buried way down the Dallas Cowboys depth chart just 2 seasons ago, but then a season-ending injury to Blake Jarwin and some very consistent play elevated him to a quality NFL tight end, and an every-week fantasy starter. Now, the Cowboys target tree has become much more condensed with Amari Cooper sent packing to Cleveland, Cedrick Wilson taking his talents to Miami, and fellow tight end Blake Jarwin being released. That’s 176 targets that have left with no major new pieces to soak them up. I don’t expect Schultz to see a massive spike in targets, but he should become even more consistent, and will see more high-value targets. He will now have a decent ceiling to accompany his nice stable floor. I could easily see a top 4-5 tight end finish for Schultz.

Tua Tagovailoa

It’s Tua Time! Finally, after 2 years of middling play, we get to find out if Tua was worth the hype as a prospect at Alabama, or if he’ll be another disappointment for a struggling franchise. The Dolphins have done everything possible to help Tua succeed including signing the No. 1 rated OT free agent in Terron Armstead, bringing in some competent backs in Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds, hiring an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel, and even pulling off the shocker of the year by trading for Tyreek Hill. All this to say, Tua has more than enough talent around him now, it’s just a matter of him finding success. Tua has a good arm, and has been accurate deep, but the knock on him is that he never throws it deep.  The two main questions that will need to be answered are: Was Tua just throwing it short because he didn’t have time and the receivers weren’t getting open? And,will McDaniel use Tua like he used Jimmy G in San Francisco as a game manager and a secondary piece to the run game? Tua should be taken in the later rounds of fantasy drafts, and I believe he has the upside gamble on him if you miss out on the upper tiers of QB’s. The opportunity cost for Tua is low enough that if he flops, you can easily pivot to a Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill on the waiver wire. I don’t see a top 5 finish in the cards, but he could definitely put himself at the bottom end of the QB1’s, which will be a great return on investment for where you draft him.

Juju Smith-Schuster

One of the big questions that teams needing wide receiver help needed to answer this offseason was, “does Juju still have it?”. Lucky for us though, we might not need to decide as Juju will find relevance this season on volume alone. Juju saw the fourth most targets on the Steelers last year in the games he played. He’ll likely see the second most targets this year on the Chiefs behind only Travis Kelce. The targets will also be coming from Patrick Mahomes instead of a dead-armed Ben Roethlisberger. I’m not at all saying that Juju will return to the glory days of 2018 when he had over 1,400 yards, but 100 receptions, 1000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns is not out of the question either.

The Denver Broncos Pass Catchers

The Broncos finally pulled it off. After years of looking for a competent quarterback they finally landed Russell Wilson and are ready to compete for the Super Bowl. Denver has one of the most talented wide receiver rooms in the league with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. All three of these guys should see a major boost in all aspects of their stat lines. The only question that needs to be answered is whether or not all three of these guys will be startable on a weekly basis. Jeudy is an elite route runner who lines up in the slot, and should thrive with Wilson (see Doug Baldwin). Sutton is the big bodied down field threat that Wilson loves to target. He’s not as dominant as DK Metcalf, but I could still see him getting double digit touchdowns. Tim Patrick is a bit harder to predict, but has a history of having great hands and becoming a quarterback’s best friend when he starts to scramble. Patrick likely won’t be as consistent as the other two, but should be a fine flex option during bye weeks, and if there are any injuries to the other recievers , will jump up and be an every-week starter. 

Quick Hits:

Mike Evans – No one was helped more by Brady unretiring than Evans. A full season without Antonio Brown will help increase his targets too.

Micheal Pittman Jr. – Getting a quarterback upgrade and no new receivers coming in will solidify his role in Indianapolis. 

Javonte Williams – Russ coming to town, and Melvin Gordon not re-signing (yet) means the sky’s the limit for Williams. 

Kyle Pitts – The Falcons have no one else to throw the ball to. Also, Pitts is now playing with the coach and QB that made Delanie Walker a 1,000 yard receiver. 

Losers

Najee Harris

The Steelers offense is no longer bogged down by Big Ben, so that should be a win all around right? What’s the old saying, a rising tide lifts all boats? Well, this isn’t the case for Najee. Though having Trubisky under center should help the offense (marginally), Pittsburgh will still be winning games on the back of their defense, and not by scoring tons of points. When Big Ben got in trouble, he would dump the ball off to Najee, whereas Trubisky is athletic enough to run away from defenders and scramble for the yards himself. In 2020, the last time Trubisky was a  starter, he targeted his running backs 44 times in 9 games, which is a 17-game pace of 83 targets. In comparison, Steelers receivers were targeted 109 times last year, with Najee himself targeted 94 times, which led the league. If Najee’s targets drop down into the 70’s or even the 80’s it will be a massive hit to his fantasy value. His 3.91 rushing yards per attempt from last year is not nearly good enough to maintain his number 4 overall RB finish from last year. 

While I’d still be comfortable having Harris as my fantasy team’s number 1 running back, I would make sure to take a high-upside WR1 as Najee’s ceiling isn’t what it used to be without all of those targets.

Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett is such a clear and massive loser this offseason that it’s just sad to think about. Lockett has been a perennial WR1/2 borderline player who, when he gets hot, can single-handedly win you multiple weeks a year. That all comes to a crashing end this year though with Russell Wilson getting shipped out of Seattle. Pete Carroll has finally gotten the untalented QB that he’s always wanted in Drew Lock , and now no one will complain when Seattle runs the ball 30 times a game.

Lockett’s value has always come from his mind melding with Wilson, especially on deep balls. With Drew Lock, that mind meld won’t be there, and Lockett will see a massive hit to his targets, yards, and could easily see his touchdown total cut in half. I could see Seattle scheming ways to get the athletic freak that is DK Metcalf the ball as often as possible, but I can’t see that happening with Lockett. Sadly, I don’t see a world where Lockett finishes any better than a WR4, so he will basically be off my draft board.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

As harsh as it is to say, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not a very good running back, and the Kansas City Chiefs know it. He has proven time and time again that he can’t get it done on the ground, and the Chiefs don’t use him in the passing game. After CEH returned from injury in Week 11 last year, he never cracked the 100 all-purpose yard mark and only had 2 runs of 10+ yards in 61 attempts. Needless to say, that wasn’t good enough. The Chiefs have now brought in Ronald Jones, who despite all of his flaws, will give them a downfield runner that they’ve been missing. If the Chiefs bring back Williams or McKinnon, or even bring in a new pass catching running back, it will only continue to erode CEH’s workload.

If Clyde loses first and second down work to Jones, and continues to split passing down work, he won’t have much value for fantasy. Clyde’s name recognition and association with Patrick Mahomes will likely see him drafted as a low end RB2, but he won’t return value at that price. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to finish outside the top 36 at the running back position. 

Miami Dolphins Pass Catchers

It’s odd to list a team’s Quarterback as a winner and their receivers as losers in the same article, but that’s the situation we find ourselves in with the Dolphins. Prior to Tyreek Hill being traded to Miami, Jaylen Waddle had WR1 upside, Mike Gesicki was a locked in TE1, and even newcomer Cedrick Wilson had flex appeal. With Tyreek in town though, there are just too many mouths to feed which will hurt everyone’s value. Tua just won’t have the ability to maintain two consistent WR1s in Mike McDaniel’s run-first system. The most likely scenario is that both Hill and Waddle have explosive weeks, but it will be difficult to predict who will go off and who will finish the week with 5 catches for 54 yards. 

I’d still be happy to have either Hill or Waddle on my team, especially if I pair them with some consistent other players on my team. As for Gesicki, I’d rather take a gamble on a tight end on a team with a more condensed target tree. As for Wilson, I don’t expect him to have any value unless there is an injury to one of the big guys ahead of him on the pecking order. 

Quick Hits:

Aaron Rodgers – Losing Adams and Valdes-Scantling without bringing in any experienced receivers means Rodgers will spend a lot more time scowling this year.

Antonio Gibson – JD McKissic re-signs in Washington and the Commanders bring in a QB that doesn’t throw to the running back. Gibson’s top 5 potential might never become a thing.

Justin Fields – There’s a common theme to helping young QB’s succeed; surround them with talent. What did the Bears do? They let Robinson walk and replaced him with a few tertiary pieces. 

The GO FOR TWO Option

Now for the moment of truth, the player that isn’t getting talked about with some major upside (and some real risk). The player I’m making an early offseason call on is David Njoku. Njoku was stuck in a tight end platoon with Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant and had Jarvis Landry also roaming around the flats. Overall, there was way too much competition for targets from a middling quarterback in Baker Mayfield. 

This offseason the Browns invested a pretty penny in Njoku by franchise tagging him, and then promptly released Hooper and Landry. If that wasn’t enough, they traded for the most talented quarterback in franchise history in Deshaun Watson. Njoku has the potential to become the number 2 target for Watson behind Cooper, and has the frame to always be a mismatch when the Browns are in the red zone. The yardage might be inconsistent for Njoku, but a high touchdown total makes him the best bet to be this year’s breakout tight end